Brexit: What outcomes should we expect?
Faced with a hostile parliament, we believe that Theresa May will seek to use the limited leverage she has – through control of the timetable – to draw proceedings out.
May’s hope will be that, faced with the prospect of no-deal by default, moderates will eventually vote for her version of Brexit. If this does not work, she may turn to plan-b options.
Considering recent events, our assessment of the probabilities of three broad outcomes is as follows:
No Brexit / Second referendum – 30%
Orderly Brexit following eventual parliamentary approval of an exit agreement – 55%
No-deal Brexit – 15%
Broken down into their component parts, we assess that the probabilities of more specific outcomes are as follows:
Unilateral Brexit revocation – 10%
Second referendum – 20%
Approval of Theresa May’s unchanged deal – 10%
Plan B Brexit (i.e Customs Union Membership/Article 50 extension followed by EEA) – 45%
Deliberate no deal – 0%
Accidental no deal – 15%