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Brexit: What outcomes should we expect?



In exactly 12 weeks the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union. After a brief hiatus, Brexit looks set to dominate the news agenda again from next week.


Faced with a hostile parliament, we believe that Theresa May will seek to use the limited leverage she has – through control of the timetable – to draw proceedings out.


May’s hope will be that, faced with the prospect of no-deal by default, moderates will eventually vote for her version of Brexit. If this does not work, she may turn to plan-b options.


Considering recent events, our assessment of the probabilities of three broad outcomes is as follows:

  • No Brexit / Second referendum – 30%

  • Orderly Brexit following eventual parliamentary approval of an exit agreement – 55%

  • No-deal Brexit – 15%

Broken down into their component parts, we assess that the probabilities of more specific outcomes are as follows:

  • Unilateral Brexit revocation – 10%

  • Second referendum – 20%

  • Approval of Theresa May’s unchanged deal – 10%

  • Plan B Brexit (i.e Customs Union Membership/Article 50 extension followed by EEA) – 45%

  • Deliberate no deal – 0%

  • Accidental no deal – 15%


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