Week Ahead (10 August)

Week Ahead 

W/C Monday, 10 August – Spain prepares for next attempt to breach border at Ceuta with migrant WhatsApp groups suggesting 15 August 

Spain enters the week with the heaviest security deployment Ceuta has seen in a generation, and with the state security apparatus openly assessing the risk of a repeat of 30–31 July. The Spanish government put the number who entered the enclave over those two days at around 60,000 – more than half Ceuta's resident population, with the death toll reaching 67 and most of those who crossed returning to Morocco by the Friday evening. 

The immediate trigger for this week's attention is a set of social media calls for a fresh mass crossing on 15 August. The material circulates across WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, and identifies Castillejos – Fnideq, the Moroccan town adjacent to the Tarajal crossing – as the assembly point. Several posts assert the Tarajal border will "be open" on 15 August, a public holiday in Spain, on the reasoning that holiday crowds will provide cover. Maldita.es entered four WhatsApp groups and ten Facebook groups and identified more than 50 Instagram accounts discussing the date; El País accessed five Facebook groups with close to 400,000 members between them, plus nine WhatsApp chats. 

Whether these calls amount to anything or not, the Spanish state is taking no chances.  A 500-metre pneumatic floating barrier has been installed at the Tarajal breakwater, protruding 30–70cm above the water with a submerged section of up to a metre, reinforced by a line of Navy buoys, in a joint Guardia Civil, Armada and Salvamento Marítimo operation. The Armed Forces are deployed in support of the Civil Guard, alongside reinforced National Police and additional maritime and air assets.

The Supreme Court held on 8 July that the border-rejection regime under the tenth additional provision of the Aliens Act does not extend to those intercepted at sea while swimming, since they have not overcome a physical containment element – and Interior has explicitly framed the Tarajal barrier as its response to that judgment. Ceuta's government is backing a PP bill in Congress to extend the special rejection regime to any irregular entry by land or sea, but with the Cortes in recess there is no parliamentary vehicle before September. 

The fallout from the initial crossing has meanwhile developed into a wider Schengen dispute.  Even though France and other member states have reinforced checks on travellers arriving from Spain, Italy went considerably further by temporarily reintroducing border controls on arrivals from Spain, prompting Madrid to respond with reciprocal checks on travellers from Italy. Rome has so far resisted Spanish demands for their immediate removal, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni framing the measures as part of the government's broader hard line on irregular migration. The political backdrop is also relevant domestically, with Meloni facing growing pressure on her right from Roberto Vannacci's National Future ahead of elections expected next year.

The Commission is now actively seeking to prevent the dispute from escalating further. Spanish and Italian officials held talks with Internal Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner over the weekend, with Brussels attempting to broker an end of the reciprocal controls. Italy has already signalled some scope for de-escalation with Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani saying the additional controls on maritime and air arrivals from Spain would remain until 15 August, but indicated that Rome would be prepared to restore the previous arrangements once the immediate risk of another mass crossing had subsided.  

Brussels is also increasing pressure on the digital platforms used to organise and advertise irregular crossings. Tech Sovereignty Commissioner Henna Virkkunen held discussions with Meta and TikTok last week and is expected to continue engagement this week after EU officials identified online activity combining calls for mass crossings with smugglers advertising routes and fraudulent documents. 

The possibility remains that Moroccan authorities move pre-emptively against organisers, as the DGSN did in 2024 when a comparable social media call for a 15 September crossing produced arrests for incitement. This is likely why the Spanish authorities have been extremely reluctant to criticise Morocco for its failure to prevent last week’s mass crossing attempt.  

Monday, 10 August – Remedies deadline for FedEx / Advent €7.8 billion acquisition of InPost

Today is the last point at which the FedEx led consortium could submit commitments to ease its acquisition of InPost and still stay on the Phase 1 track. The actual decision deadline is 17 August but if remedies are submitted by close of business, this will be extended by 10 working days to 31 August. 

While remedy submissions in Phase 1 are not published or announced by the Commission, the extension of the deadline will be confirmation that a remedy package has been submitted.   Should remedies be required, these would likely entail InPost commit to continue giving rival carriers, merchants or marketplaces access to its locker/Pick Up Drop Off network on fair, reasonable, transparent and non-discriminatory terms.

This could entail InPost committing:

• not to refuse access to InPost lockers / PUDO network without objective justification

• Guarantee Equal treatment between FedEx and rival carriers     

• Provide Objective criteria for pricing, service levels and capacity

• Not to degrade access quality for FedEx rivals

The parties have already said FedEx and InPost expect to enter arm’s-length commercial agreements after completion. Nevertheless, the Commission may prefer to turn that public statement into a binding commitment.