W/C Monday, 7 September – AfD landslide in Saxony-Anhalt increases pressure on Merz ahead of further eastern state elections Germany enters the week digesting a historic result in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far right AfD secured 43.8% of the vote, its strongest result in any German state election, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU collapsed to 17.2%, from 37.1% in 2021. The scale of the result is particularly striking given exceptionally high turnout of 77.8%, making it har

W/C Monday, 31 August – EU recovery fund reform deadline expires as Hungary races to unblock €10 billion Member states have until the end of today to complete the reforms and investments required to unlock their remaining allocations under the EU's post-pandemic Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), with the Commission repeatedly ruling out any extension to the 31 August deadline. Governments will subsequently have until 30 September to submit their final payment requests,

Tuesday, 18 August – EU e-Evidence regulation becomes applicable, expanding authorities’ cross-border access to data held by technology companies Tomorrow, the EU's new e-Evidence regulation will become applicable following a 3-year transition period, introducing a new framework allowing judicial authorities to obtain electronic evidence directly from technology and communications providers located elsewhere in the EU. The rules represent a significant change to the way cross

Week Ahead W/C Monday, 10 August – Spain prepares for next attempt to breach border at Ceuta with migrant WhatsApp groups suggesting 15 August Spain enters the week with the heaviest security deployment Ceuta has seen in a generation, and with the state security apparatus openly assessing the risk of a repeat of 30–31 July. The Spanish government put the number who entered the enclave over those two days at around 60,000 – more than half Ceuta's resident population, with th

Thursday, 30 July – Commission expected to clear PIF-EA under FSR following unconditional merger approval The European Commission is expected to decide this week whether to approve Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF)-led acquisition of video game publisher Electronic Arts (EA) under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), with all indications continuing to point towards an unconditional Phase I clearance. Last Thursday, the transaction secured unconditional approval u

W/C Monday, 20 July – EU to make renewed push for agreement on 21st Russian sanctions package as negotiations with Greece enter decisive phase EU ambassadors are expected to make another attempt on Wednesday to approve the bloc's 21st package of sanctions against Russia, after negotiations stalled last week over Greek objections to a proposed ban on the transport of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to third countries. With unanimity required, the latest round of talks will

W/C Monday, 13 July – Commission likely to publish first FRS review, expected to propose targeted simplification The European Commission is expected to publish its first formal review of the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) this week, three years after the framework began applying. The report will assess whether the Regulation is operating effectively and whether changes are needed to reduce administrative burdens while preserving Brussels’ ability to investigate foreign st

Tuesday, 7 July – Paris court to rule on Le Pen’s appeal against ban from elected office, with key implications for next year’s French presidential elections France's Court of Appeal is expected to deliver a landmark ruling tomorrow that could determine whether Marine Le Pen will be eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election, a decision with potentially significant implications not only for French politics but also for the future direction of the EU. The case stems fro

Monday, 29 June – EU-China trade talks to test Brussels’ appetite for tougher trade defence measures Later today, the European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is scheduled to meet Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels against the backdrop of a rapidly widening trade imbalance. China's goods trade surplus with the EU reached €360.6 billion in 2025, around 15% higher than the previous year, while the deficit has continued to widen during the opening months of 2026

W/C Monday, 22 June – AWS and Microsoft Azure getting closer to DMA designation; European Commission’s preliminary findings to be released The European Commission is expected to publish preliminary findings as early as this week in its ongoing Digital Markets Act (DMA) investigations into Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure. The preliminary assessment is expected to conclude that both cloud services appear to meet the criteria for designation as "core platform servi

Wednesday, 17 June – CJEU to hear landmark case on whether companies can seek reimbursement from executives for cartel fines On Wednesday, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will hold a hearing in Zapp (C-347/25), a preliminary reference from Germany's Federal Court of Justice concerning whether companies fined for breaches of EU competition law may subsequently seek reimbursement from their own directors or managers for those penalties and related legal costs

W/C Monday, 8 June – Commission expected to unveil 21st sanctions package against Russia; Chinese firms assisting Russian circumvention to be included The European Commission is expected to present its proposed 21st package of sanctions against Russia this week, marking the latest effort by Brussels to increase economic pressure on Moscow as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. The package is likely to focus heavily on Russia’s energy revenues, which remain a critica

Tuesday, 2 June – Eurostat to release flash inflation estimate for May ahead of key ECB rate decision in June Early this week, Eurostat will publish its flash estimate for euro area inflation in May, providing one of the final major data points before the European Central Bank’s next Governing Council meeting on 11 June. The release is expected to play an important role in shaping expectations around whether the ECB proceeds with a precautionary rate increase in response to p

Monday, 18 May – Pressure intensifies on Sanchez after Socialists suffer historic defeat in Andalusia; PP moves towards likely Vox-backed government Sunday’s Andalusia regional elections delivered a mixed but politically significant outcome for Spain’s centre-right Popular Party (PP), while dealing a major blow to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the Socialist Party (PSOE) ahead of the 2027 general election cycle. Although incumbent regional president Juanma Moreno and the PP

W/C Monday, 11 May – Pressure on Keir Starmer to intensify following local elections political shockwave as Reform UK surges across the country Last week’s results from the UK’s local and devolved elections have confirmed a worse than anticipated outcome for the ruling Labour Party, intensifying questions around the government’s political trajectory. The elections, covering around 5,000 seats across 136 councils in England as well as devolved contests in Scotland and Wales, w

Monday, 4 May – Tuesday, 5 May – Eurogroup to focus on Middle East energy shock as southern states push for fiscal flexibility Finance ministers are meeting today and tomorrow, with the economic fallout from the Middle East crisis set to dominate discussions, as a group of southern member states seeks greater fiscal leeway to address rising energy costs. Italy, backed by Spain, is expected to argue for the exclusion of energy-related spending from EU fiscal rules, reflecting

W/C Monday, 27 April – ETS benchmarks for 2026-2030 expected imminently, though adoption risks slipping into early May amid political pressure The European Commission is expected imminently to finalise the revised EU ETS benchmarks for the 2026–2030 period. Initial indications are that this will take place by the end of April, although timing remains uncertain and could slip into early May, reflecting growing internal divisions and the political sensitivity around the file.

W/C Monday, 20 April – Radev wins in Bulgaria, raising questions for EU unity on Ukraine and integration Bulgaria’s snap parliamentary elections on Sunday have delivered a decisive result, with former president Rumen Radev securing a landslide victory and upending the country’s fragmented political landscape. The vote, Bulgaria’s eighth in under five years, had been widely seen as another episode in its prolonged instability; instead, it has produced a clear governing majori

W/C Monday, 13 April – Hungary enters new era following Orban’s electoral defeat after 16 years in power Hungary’s parliamentary elections on Sunday delivered a decisive political shift, with Peter Magyar and his centre-right Tisza party securing a landslide victory, ending Viktor Orban’s 16-year hold on power. With over 97% of votes counted, Tisza obtained approximately 53.6% of the vote and 138 seats in the 199-seat parliament, comfortably surpassing the two-thirds superma

W/C Tuesday, 7 April – Commission’s likely release of ETS benchmark updates following Market Stability Reserve proposal The European Commission may move forward in the coming days with the long-awaited update of ETS benchmarks for the 2026–2030 period, following last week’s publication of targeted amendments to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR). Initial expectations pointed to a release along with the MSR proposal but the benchmark proposal remains under discussion at Col