W/C Monday, 27 April – ETS benchmarks for 2026-2030 expected imminently, though adoption risks slipping into early May amid political pressure The European Commission is expected imminently to finalise the revised EU ETS benchmarks for the 2026–2030 period. Initial indications are that this will take place by the end of April, although timing remains uncertain and could slip into early May, reflecting growing internal divisions and the political sensitivity around the file.

W/C Monday, 20 April – Radev wins in Bulgaria, raising questions for EU unity on Ukraine and integration Bulgaria’s snap parliamentary elections on Sunday have delivered a decisive result, with former president Rumen Radev securing a landslide victory and upending the country’s fragmented political landscape. The vote, Bulgaria’s eighth in under five years, had been widely seen as another episode in its prolonged instability; instead, it has produced a clear governing majori

W/C Monday, 13 April – Hungary enters new era following Orban’s electoral defeat after 16 years in power Hungary’s parliamentary elections on Sunday delivered a decisive political shift, with Peter Magyar and his centre-right Tisza party securing a landslide victory, ending Viktor Orban’s 16-year hold on power. With over 97% of votes counted, Tisza obtained approximately 53.6% of the vote and 138 seats in the 199-seat parliament, comfortably surpassing the two-thirds superma

W/C Tuesday, 7 April – Commission’s likely release of ETS benchmark updates following Market Stability Reserve proposal The European Commission may move forward in the coming days with the long-awaited update of ETS benchmarks for the 2026–2030 period, following last week’s publication of targeted amendments to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR). Initial expectations pointed to a release along with the MSR proposal but the benchmark proposal remains under discussion at Col

W/C Monday 30 March – Commission likely to decide on Clarios’ acquisition of Ecobat’s German and Austrian recycling assets This week , the European Commission is expected to move toward a decision on Clarios’ proposed acquisition of selected European recycling operations from Ecobat, with the case currently scheduled for a formal deadline of 13 April but potentially concluding earlier under a Phase I review. The transaction covers Ecobat’s battery recycling and special

W/C Monday, 23 March – Mainstream parties retain major cities in French municipal runoffs; far right advances unevenly ahead of 2027 presidential race France concluded the second round of its municipal elections on Sunday in a vote that offers important signals for the political landscape ahead of the April 2027 presidential election. The results point to a nuanced picture. Mainstream parties of the left, centre and right broadly retained control of the country’s largest ur

W/C Monday, 16 March – European Parliament to decide whether to proceed with vote on EU-US trade framework The European Parliament will determine this week whether to move ahead with a vote on the ratification of the EU–US trade framework agreement concluded in July 2025 between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump. Negotiators from the Parliament’s political groups will meet on 17 March to assess whether the vote scheduled for 19 March should proceed or be postponed again.

W/C Monday, 9 March – Greens retain Baden-Wurttemberg in setback for Merz coalition as Germany’s ‘’super election year’’ gets underway; AfD makes further gains Germany’s “super election year” opened on Sunday with a narrow but politically significant result in Baden-Württemberg, where the Greens finished first ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, defying conservative hopes of recapturing one of the country’s most economically important states. Preliminary results put t

Monday, 2 March – Euro area flash inflation in focus as ECB watches undershoot risks and euro strength Today, Eurostat releases its flash estimate of euro area inflation for February, a key data point for markets assessing whether the disinflation trend is consolidating ahead of the 18 March meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council. Although the ECB left rates unchanged at its February meeting , incoming inflation data could directly shape the policy debate hea

Monday, 23 February - Tuesday, 24 February – Hungary blocking EU’s 20 th sanctions package and €90 billion Ukraine loan ahead of invasion anniversary EU efforts to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with a new show of unity are at risk after Hungary, backed in part by Slovakia, moved to block both the EU’s 20th package of sanctions against Russia and the approval of a €90 billion EU loan intended to finance Kyiv’s war effort through 2026.

W/C Monday, 16 February – SAFE approvals near completion as Council set to adopt second batch; final three plans expected, including France’s This week, EU finance ministers are expected to formally approve a second batch of national spending plans under the €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, bringing the scheme close to full operationalisation. Attention will also focus on the remaining three national plans still under technical assessment by the Euro

W/C Monday, 9 February – Pressure intensified on Sanchez at national level following heavy Socialist defeat in Aragon regional elections Spain’s ruling Socialists (PSOE) suffered a significant setback in Sunday’s regional elections in the northeastern region of Aragon, the first of three regional elections scheduled in the coming months and widely regarded as a barometer for national political trends. Since Spain’s return to democracy in 1977, the party that has topped the v

Wednesday 4 February – Thursday, 5 February – Eurozone latest flash inflation data and ECB rate decision in focus amid sharp Euro appreciation This week brings two closely linked events for euro area markets: the flash inflation estimate for January and the ECB Governing Council meeting on 4 February. Markets widely expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2%, extending the hold that has now been in place for several meetings. The policy backdrop remains shape

W/C Monday, 26 January – EU expected to approve second batch of SAFE national spending plans; disbursements set to begin in March The European Commission and the Council are expected this week to move forward with a second batch of approvals under the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, the €150 billion joint defence lending instrument designed to accelerate military procurement and support the EU defence industrial base. Most national plans are understood to b

Monday 19 January – French cabinet to discuss which “legislative instrument” Sebastian Lecornu will use to pass France’s budget for 2026 Last Thursday, finally acknowledging that the parliamentary arithmetic is impossible, the Lecornu government suspended the budget debate in the Assembly. Lecornu has indicated that he will decide by tomorrow which “legislative vehicle” he will use to pass the budget. Per previous updates, our assessment is that this can be only one of two

W/C Monday, 12 January – US Secretary Rubio to meet with Danish officials amid growing US assertiveness over Greenland This week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet Danish officials amid a sharp escalation in US–European tensions over Greenland, after President Trump publicly revived and hardened his ambition for US control of the Arctic island. Trump has argued that Greenland is critical for US military posture and missile defence, and has not ruled out coerc

Monday, 15 December – Senators to vote on Finance Bill (PLF) in France On Tuesday, the Social Security Bill (PLFSS) was approved with 13 votes to spare (247 in favour, 234 against and, crucially, 93 abstentions) – much to the relief of Prime Minister Lecornu whose team had spent the prior weekend countering rumours that his resignation could be imminent. The Senate will send the text back to the Assembly via a preliminary question (this is essentially a motion to rejec

Wednesday, 10 December – General Court to issue ruling in Intel’s challenge to re-imposed €376m EU antitrust fine On Wednesday, the EU’s General Court will deliver its judgement in T-1129/23 Intel v Commission, a key ruling in a 15-year legal saga over whether Intel abused its dominance in the market for x86 computer chips. The decision will determine whether the Commission’s €376.36 million fine, re-imposed in 2023 after an earlier annulment, can stand. The fine relate

W/C Monday, 1 December – European Commission to table legal proposal on Russian-asset-backed Ukraine loan as pressure intensifies on Belgium The European Commission is expected to present a formal legal proposal this week for the EU’s €140 billion Ukraine loan backed by immobilised Russian state assets, as efforts continue to overcome Belgium’s opposition ahead of the 18 December European Council, where leaders aim to reach a political agreement. The text will seek to provid

W/C Monday, 24 November – Talks on US peace plan for Ukraine to accelerate ahead of soft 27 November deadline; EU moves to shape final text The diplomatic focus in Europe this week will be dominated by the evolving US–Russia effort to shape a 28-point roadmap for a potential peace deal in Ukraine. The initial release of the document last week, covering issues such as disengagement lines, verification mechanisms, phased sanctions relief and longer-term security guarantees, ge