W/C Monday, 9 March – Greens retain Baden-Wurttemberg in setback for Merz coalition as Germany’s ‘’super election year’’ gets underway; AfD makes further gains   Germany’s “super election year” opened on Sunday with a narrow but politically significant result in Baden-Württemberg, where the Greens finished first ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, defying conservative hopes of recapturing one of the country’s most economically important states. Preliminary results put t

Monday, 2 March – Euro area flash inflation in focus as ECB watches undershoot risks and euro strength  Today, Eurostat releases its flash estimate of euro area inflation for February, a key data point for markets assessing whether the disinflation trend is consolidating ahead of the 18 March meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council. Although the ECB left rates unchanged at its February meeting , incoming inflation data could directly shape the policy debate hea

Monday, 23 February - Tuesday, 24 February – Hungary blocking EU’s 20 th sanctions package and €90 billion Ukraine loan ahead of invasion anniversary  EU efforts to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with a new show of unity are at risk after Hungary, backed in part by Slovakia, moved to block both the EU’s 20th package of sanctions against Russia and the approval of a €90 billion EU loan intended to finance Kyiv’s war effort through 2026.

W/C Monday, 16 February – SAFE approvals near completion as Council set to adopt second batch; final three plans expected, including France’s  This week, EU finance ministers are expected to formally approve a second batch of national spending plans under the €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, bringing the scheme close to full operationalisation. Attention will also focus on the remaining three national plans still under technical assessment by the Euro

W/C Monday, 9 February – Pressure intensified on Sanchez at national level following heavy Socialist defeat in Aragon regional elections  Spain’s ruling Socialists (PSOE) suffered a significant setback in Sunday’s regional elections in the northeastern region of Aragon, the first of three regional elections scheduled in the coming months and widely regarded as a barometer for national political trends. Since Spain’s return to democracy in 1977, the party that has topped the v

Wednesday 4 February – Thursday, 5 February – Eurozone latest flash inflation data and ECB rate decision in focus amid sharp Euro appreciation  This week brings two closely linked events for euro area markets: the flash inflation estimate for January and the ECB Governing Council meeting on 4 February. Markets widely expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2%, extending the hold that has now been in place for several meetings.    The policy backdrop remains shape

W/C Monday, 26 January – EU expected to approve second batch of SAFE national spending plans; disbursements set to begin in March  The European Commission and the Council are expected this week to move forward with a second batch of approvals under the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, the €150 billion joint defence lending instrument designed to accelerate military procurement and support the EU defence industrial base. Most national plans are understood to b

Monday 19 January – French cabinet to discuss which “legislative instrument” Sebastian Lecornu will use to pass France’s budget for 2026  Last Thursday, finally acknowledging that the parliamentary arithmetic is impossible, the Lecornu government suspended the budget debate in the Assembly.  Lecornu has indicated that he will decide by tomorrow which “legislative vehicle” he will use to pass the budget.  Per previous updates, our assessment is that this can be only one of two

W/C Monday, 12 January – US Secretary Rubio to meet with Danish officials  amid growing US assertiveness over Greenland  This week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet Danish officials amid a sharp escalation in US–European tensions over Greenland, after President Trump publicly revived and hardened his ambition for US control of the Arctic island. Trump has argued that Greenland is critical for US military posture and missile defence, and has not ruled out coerc

Monday, 15 December – Senators to vote on Finance Bill (PLF) in France  On Tuesday, the Social Security Bill (PLFSS) was approved with 13 votes to spare (247 in favour, 234 against and, crucially, 93 abstentions)  – much to the relief of Prime Minister Lecornu whose team had spent the prior weekend countering rumours that his resignation could be imminent.     The Senate will send the text back to the Assembly via a preliminary question (this is essentially a motion to rejec

Wednesday, 10 December – General Court to issue ruling in Intel’s challenge to re-imposed €376m EU antitrust fine  On Wednesday, the EU’s General Court will deliver its judgement in T-1129/23 Intel v Commission, a key ruling in a 15-year legal saga over whether Intel abused its dominance in the market for x86 computer chips. The decision will determine whether the Commission’s €376.36 million fine, re-imposed in 2023 after an earlier annulment, can stand.    The fine relate

W/C Monday, 1 December – European Commission to table legal proposal on Russian-asset-backed Ukraine loan as pressure intensifies on Belgium  The European Commission is expected to present a formal legal proposal this week for the EU’s €140 billion Ukraine loan backed by immobilised Russian state assets, as efforts continue to overcome Belgium’s opposition ahead of the 18 December European Council, where leaders aim to reach a political agreement. The text will seek to provid

W/C Monday, 24 November – Talks on US peace plan for Ukraine to accelerate ahead of soft 27 November deadline; EU moves to shape final text  The diplomatic focus in Europe this week will be dominated by the evolving US–Russia effort to shape a 28-point roadmap for a potential peace deal in Ukraine. The initial release of the document last week, covering issues such as disengagement lines, verification mechanisms, phased sanctions relief and longer-term security guarantees, ge

W/C Monday, 17 November – Pressure to intensify on Belgium as EU races to unlock proposed €140 billion loan to Ukraine amid narrowing time window   This week, EU negotiations over a proposed €140 billion loan for Ukraine backed by frozen Russian state assets are expected to accelerate as the Commission seeks to overcome Belgium’s continued blockage of the plan. The Danish Council Presidency formally asked the Commission last Thursday to advance work on the asset-backed loan,

W/C Monday, 10 November – Google faces deadline to outline ad tech compliance following Commission’s €2.95 billion fine   Google faces a decisive week in Brussels as it has a European Commission deadline to explain how it will comply with the €2.95 billion fine and sweeping ad-tech ruling issued in September , a case that could ultimately force the company to break up parts of its core business and reignite transatlantic tensions over digital market regulation.     The Commis

W/C Monday, 3 November – Coalition talks to begin in the Netherlands following surprise victory of centrist    Following last Wednesday’s Dutch general elections, the Netherlands is once again entering lengthy coalition talks, after voters delivered a highly fragmented parliament and no clear majority. The outgoing technocratic government of Prime Minister Dick Schoof collapsed in June after the Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert Wilders withdrew over a hardline migration plan, tri

W/C Monday, 27 October – Trade Commissioner Sefcovic to hold follow-up meetings with Chinese officials amid renewed EU-China trade fictions   On Friday, the European Commission confirmed that a series of in-person high-level meetings between EU and Chinese officials will take place this week, following the Trade Commissioner’s Maros Sefcovic call with Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao last Tuesday. The exchanges come as tensions between Brussels and Beijing deepen over rare-ear

Tuesday, 21 October – Apple to challenge DMA decisions before the General Court   Tomorrow, the General Court, the EU’s lower court, will hear two related cases brought by Apple (T-1079/23 and T-1080/23) against a set of European Commission decisions under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).    In September 2023, the European Commission confirmed  its initial list of six tech companies qualifying as ‘’gatekeepers’’ under the DMA, namely Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta, Byte

Monday, 13 October – France’s budget for 2026 to be tabled following reappointment of Lecornu as PM and formation of new cabinet   Per...

W/C Monday, 6 October – Lecornu resigns hours after forming cabinet; France plunged into political uncertainty    France has once again...