W/C Monday, 26 January – EU expected to approve second batch of SAFE national spending plans; disbursements set to begin in March  The European Commission and the Council are expected this week to move forward with a second batch of approvals under the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, the €150 billion joint defence lending instrument designed to accelerate military procurement and support the EU defence industrial base. Most national plans are understood to b

Monday 19 January – French cabinet to discuss which “legislative instrument” Sebastian Lecornu will use to pass France’s budget for 2026  Last Thursday, finally acknowledging that the parliamentary arithmetic is impossible, the Lecornu government suspended the budget debate in the Assembly.  Lecornu has indicated that he will decide by tomorrow which “legislative vehicle” he will use to pass the budget.  Per previous updates, our assessment is that this can be only one of two

W/C Monday, 12 January – US Secretary Rubio to meet with Danish officials  amid growing US assertiveness over Greenland  This week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet Danish officials amid a sharp escalation in US–European tensions over Greenland, after President Trump publicly revived and hardened his ambition for US control of the Arctic island. Trump has argued that Greenland is critical for US military posture and missile defence, and has not ruled out coerc

Monday, 15 December – Senators to vote on Finance Bill (PLF) in France  On Tuesday, the Social Security Bill (PLFSS) was approved with 13 votes to spare (247 in favour, 234 against and, crucially, 93 abstentions)  – much to the relief of Prime Minister Lecornu whose team had spent the prior weekend countering rumours that his resignation could be imminent.     The Senate will send the text back to the Assembly via a preliminary question (this is essentially a motion to rejec