Week Ahead (10 November)

W/C Monday, 10 November – Google faces deadline to outline ad tech compliance following Commission’s €2.95 billion fine 

Google faces a decisive week in Brussels as it has a European Commission deadline to explain how it will comply with the €2.95 billion fine and sweeping ad-tech ruling issued in September, a case that could ultimately force the company to break up parts of its core business and reignite transatlantic tensions over digital market regulation.  

The Commission’s decision in September came after days of internal hesitation and US diplomatic pressure, marking the first major sanction under Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera and the second-largest EU competition fine on record. The ruling concluded that since 2014, Google has abused its dominance in the online display-advertising value chain by favouring its own intermediation tools, notably AdX and DoubleClick for Publishers, to the detriment of rival providers and publishers. The company was ordered to end the conduct, address structural conflicts of interest across its ad-tech stack, and report back within 60 days on compliance steps, a deadline that expires this week. 

In earlier stages of the investigation, which was launched in 2021, the Commission had signalled that structural remedies, including a potential divestment of parts of Google’s advertising business, could be required if behavioural changes proved inadequate. Google rejected that view and in 2024 offered to sell its AdX platform, an option dismissed by publisher groups as too limited. 

Commissioner Teresa Ribera has stated that the Commission will give due consideration to any proposed commitments but “will not hesitate to impose strong remedies” if they fail to resolve the identified distortions. Officials will first assess whether Google’s plan meets the decision’s requirements and whether it warrants a market test with affected stakeholders before approval. In recent days, the Commission has recently indicated that structural measures, including the sale of parts of Google’s ad tech stack, may ultimately be necessary to restore market neutrality. 

Hence, the coming weeks will show whether the Commission accepts Google’s proposed behavioural changes or moves towards a structural solution, a decision that may have significant consequences for the global online advertising market as well as the broader EU-US digital policy relationship. 

Monday, 10 November – Heads of EU institutions to hold key budget talks ahead of Wednesday’s plenary vote on the next MFF 

Today, the three main EU institutions, the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the Council, will meet in a bid to resolve tensions over the EU’s next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) before a decisive parliamentary plenary on Wednesday. 

The meeting between Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, and representatives of the Danish Council Presidency will aim to bridge divisions over the structure of the bloc’s seven-year spending plan, first unveiled by the Commission in July 2025. 

At the heart of the dispute is von der Leyen’s proposal to overhaul the EU’s budget architecture by consolidating the current patchwork of more than fifty programmes into three major pillars: 

1. A decentralised programme for each Member State covering agricultural and cohesion funds (CAP and structural funding); 

2. A new Competitiveness Fund dedicated to innovation, industrial policy, and technological leadership, in line with the Draghi Report’s recommendations; 

3. An external assistance strand, aligned with the EU’s geopolitical and development priorities, including around €100 billion earmarked for Ukraine. 

The reform is not radical in size but in structure and intent. It seeks to shift the EU’s focus from redistribution to competitiveness, moving away from what Commission officials call the “agriculture-and-cohesion reflex.” Under the new framework, Pillar 1, currently accounting for roughly 60% of the 2021–2027 budget, would fall to around 40%, while Pillar 2 would become a key growth driver, financing projects in clean tech, digital infrastructure, defence innovation, and critical raw materials. 

The proposed rebalancing has triggered strong resistance from traditional beneficiaries of CAP and cohesion funds, particularly in southern and eastern Member States, who fear a loss of resources. Another contentious issue concerns the allocation criteria for the Competitiveness Fund: the Commission favours the so-called ‘’principle of excellence’’, arguing it best serves Europe’s competitiveness goals, while smaller and peripheral countries are pushing for greater geographic balance to avoid further concentration of funds in Western Europe. 

Against this backdrop, political pressure on von der Leyen has intensified in recent days. Four major political groups in the Parliament, namely the S&D, Renew, the Greens and even von der Leyen’s own EPP, are demanding concessions and have warned that, absent changes, they may formally reject the Commission’s blueprint during this week’s plenary.  

Aiming to prevent this scenario from unfolding, von der Leyen’s latest draft proposal offers a series of concessions to MEPs, including provisions that would enhance the role of the Parliament in the budget negotiations and the  introduction of a ‘’rural target’’ guaranteeing that member states allocate a part of the EU subsidies to agriculture. Any modification to the current proposal will ultimately require unanimous approval from the 27 Member States, which retain the final say over the MFF. 

Wednesday, 12 November – French Assembly aiming to hold final vote on the Social Security Bill including suspension of pension reform 

The French National Assembly spent last week continuing its examination of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), the government's social spending plan. Discussions were suspended at midnight last night and won’t resume until Wednesday due to the 11 November commemorations.   

Despite being considered less controversial than the Finance Bill (PLF), which covers revenue-raising measures, the PLFSS has highlighted deep divisions, including within the left bloc. Last Wednesday, MPs rejected a Socialist Party (PS) amendment proposing an increase in the CSG tax on capital income to finance the temporary suspension of the pension reform, a concession previously offered by Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. The measure was opposed by both the far-right National Rally and the hard left La France Insoumise (LFI), leaving the Socialists increasingly isolated. The Greens and Communists have also signalled scepticism toward the suspension, which suggests a hardening of their approach to budget negotiations.   

If MPs vote on similar lines this week when it comes to the vote on the pension reform suspension, scheduled for around 3pm on Wednesday, this will also likely be defeated which will see a return of significant uncertainty. LFI have indicated they will not vote in favour of the suspension since they insist on an outright repeal rather than a postponement.  The Greens and Communists are also understood to be leaning that way. The votes of the National Rally will likely be decisive here – they voted against the increase in CSG tax but may find it politically more difficult to vote against the suspension of the pension reform.  In any case, even after the vote on pension reform, there remain around 380 amendments yet to be voted on which suggests the process may extend beyond Wednesday, thus jeopardising the timetable for the passage of the overall budget.     

Under France’s constitutional timetable, the Assembly must complete both parts of the Finance Bill within 40 days of the start of deliberations—by 23 November—and reach a final decision by 23 December to allow for Constitutional Council review and presidential enactment before year-end.  

After two weeks of debate and more than 3,000 amendments reviewed, MPs have examined fewer than one-third of amendments to the PLF and on 28 October the government formally suspended debate until 13 November to prioritise the Social Security discussions.  

With more than 2,000 amendments still pending and no agreement yet in sight, plus potential delays to the PLFSS, the risk of rolling over the 2025 budget or adopting the 2026 text by ordinance remains elevated. Lecornu continues to defend his objective of limiting the deficit to 4.9% of GDP next year, though achieving that target is becoming increasingly challenging in the current political context. 

Wednesday, 12 November – SAFE negotiations regarding UK and Canada’s participation terms enter final stage; likely COREPER adoption 

At the 5 November meeting of EU negotiators, Member States signalled broad support for granting the Commission greater flexibility to finalise talks with the UK and Canada on their participation in the €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme. A large majority of capitals endorsed flexibility on both the financial contribution and the minimum EU component share, with many also noting the importance of treating the UK and Canada as close allies. 

The Danish Presidency confirmed that negotiations, which began on 8 October, are now entering their final phase. Draft participation agreements were circulated to Member States on 31 October, and discussions last Wednesday centred on four interlinked issues: the level of the financial contribution, the minimum EU component share, possible derogations under exceptional circumstances, and differentiated treatment between the UK and Canada. 

France, backed by Luxembourg, cautioned against diluting the core objectives of SAFE and the need to strengthen the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). Paris said it could accept movement either on the minimum EU component share or on derogations, but not on both simultaneously, reiterating that a 50% EU component requirement remains appropriate. 

After updating the Defence Industrial Working Party last Thursday, the Commission sought further guidance from Member States the following day, aiming for political endorsement and adoption at COREPER on 12 November. A breakthrough this week would mark a decisive step in concluding the SAFE participation talks and allow capitals to factor the UK and Canada into their national defence investment plans due by the end of the month.