Week Ahead (11 November)

w/c 11 November, Spain digests another inconclusive election result which sees far right make gains

We noted in our preview piece that applications for postal votes were down 30% compared to April’s general election and that voter apathy would likely help the far-right Vox party amid the secessionist fueled unrest in Catalunya. Voter turnout dropped from 75.5% in April to 69.9% and Vox were the real winners as its seat count more than doubled from 24 to 52. With 176 seats required for a governing majority, Sanchez is left with fewer options than in April. Barring an unlikely grand coalition with the PP, Sanchez will need to form a minority government which will rely on parliamentary consensus to govern. This will take time to negotiate.

Tuesday 12 November, Second round of hearings for designated commissioners begin

In what risks becoming a never-ending process, the European Parliament will this week consider the following newly designated commissioners: Romanian Adina Valean, Frenchman Thierry Breton and Hungarian Oliver Varhelyi. The three have been proposed to European Commission President elect Ursula Von der Leyen by their governments after the rejection of their first choices during the first round of hearings. In case of successful hearings, the European Parliament Conference of Committee Chairs will give its green light on 19 November and an EP vote on the whole College of Commissioners will take place on 27 November. The three nominations look solid with the exception of Thierry Breton but it is difficult to imagine a second consecutive rejection of a French designated commissioner.

Thursday 14 November- Eurostat to publish flash estimates of GDP for EU and the Eurozone for Q3

On Thursday 14 November Eurostat will publish flash estimates of GDP and employment for Q3. Preliminary flash estimates for Q3 2019 published in October predicted that seasonally adjusted GDP will increase by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.3% in the EU28. In the second quarter of 2019, GDP had grown by 0.2% in both zones.