Week Ahead (22 June)

W/C Monday, 22 June – AWS and Microsoft Azure getting closer to DMA designation; European Commission’s preliminary findings to be released

The European Commission is expected to publish preliminary findings as early as this week in its ongoing Digital Markets Act (DMA) investigations into Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure. The preliminary assessment is expected to conclude that both cloud services appear to meet the criteria for designation as "core platform services" under the DMA, bringing Europe’s two largest cloud providers a step closer to becoming subject to the bloc’s ex-ante competition framework.

The investigations were launched in November 2025 as part of a broader effort by Brussels to assess whether dominant cloud infrastructure providers should fall within the scope of the DMA. At the time, the Commission argued that Amazon and Microsoft occupied particularly strong positions in the European cloud market and that cloud infrastructure was becoming increasingly important for AI deployment, digital services and Europe’s wider technological sovereignty ambitions.

It is important to clarify forthcoming findings would not constitute a final designation decision. Rather, they represent an intermediate procedural step in the Commission’s market investigation process. A final decision is currently expected before the end of 2026, although timing remains somewhat flexible. Notably, while the DMA formally envisages a 12-month investigation period, the Commission’s inaugural market investigations involving Apple and Meta ultimately extended beyond that timeframe, with final decisions adopted roughly 13 months after their launch.

Should AWS and Azure ultimately be designated as core platform services, both companies would face a range of obligations aimed at reducing barriers to competition in cloud markets. These could include interoperability requirements, restrictions on customer lock-in practices, limitations on self-preferencing and obligations designed to facilitate switching between cloud providers.

The investigations also form part of a broader shift in EU digital policy. Alongside the recent Tech Sovereignty Package and the proposed Cloud and AI Development Act, Brussels has increasingly identified cloud infrastructure as a strategic dependency. European policymakers have repeatedly expressed concerns over the dominance of US providers in a market where AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud account for the vast majority of European cloud services.

The case represents the next major phase of DMA enforcement following the Commission’s first non-compliance decisions in April 2025, when Apple and Meta became the first gatekeepers to receive DMA fines (€500 million and €200 million respectively). Attention is now shifting from those inaugural enforcement actions toward the possible expansion of the DMA into new sectors, with cloud computing emerging as one of the most significant tests of the regulation’s future scope.

As a reminder, under the DMA, companies can be designated as gatekeepers where they provide an important gateway between businesses and users and meet certain quantitative and qualitative thresholds, including a market capitalisation exceeding €75 billion and more than 45 million monthly active EU users. Amazon and Microsoft are already designated gatekeepers for several services; extending that status to AWS and Azure would significantly broaden their regulatory exposure in Europe.

W/C Monday, 22 June – Starmer announces resignation following Burnham’s landslide Makerfield victory, triggering Labour leadership contest

The political fallout from Andy Burnham’s emphatic victory in Makerfield by-election last Thursday is expected to dominate British politics this week, after Prime Minister Keir Starmer formally announced his resignation as Labour leader and Prime Minister earlier today, triggering a leadership contest that will determine both his successor and the future direction of the government.

Burnham secured a commanding result, winning approximately 55% of the vote and defeating Reform UK by more than 9,000 votes. The scale of the victory exceeded expectations and was particularly notable given Reform’s strong performance during last month’s local elections. Burnham also outperformed Labour’s 2024 general election result in the constituency, suggesting an ability to attract both traditional Labour voters and tactical support from across the centre-left.

The result is significant because it provides Burnham with something he lacked previously: a return to Westminster and a viable platform from which to challenge Starmer’s leadership. Throughout the campaign, Burnham largely avoided explicit references to a leadership bid. However, his victory speech contained unusually direct criticism of Labour’s current direction, describing the election as a potential “turning point” and arguing that British politics was failing to deliver meaningful change. Such remarks have been widely interpreted as an early indication of his broader ambitions.

Over the weekend, reports emerged suggesting that Starmer was increasingly likely to set out an orderly departure timetable, following Burnham’s victory and growing unrest within the parliamentary party. Those reports were confirmed on Monday morning when Starmer announced his resignation outside Downing Street, stating that he had "heard the answer" from his party regarding whether he remained the best person to lead Labour into the next general election and that he accepted that verdict "with good grace". He also confirmed that he had informed King Charles III of his decision earlier in the day.

At the same time, Burnham’s allies claim that support for a leadership challenge has grown rapidly since Thursday’s result, with some reports suggesting that a majority of Labour MPs now favour a change at the top. While such claims remain difficult to verify, they underline the extent to which Burnham’s victory has transformed the internal political landscape. Even US President Donald Trump weighed into the debate over the weekend, publicly predicting that Starmer would resign, highlighting the unusual degree of international attention now focused on Labour’s leadership crisis.

The focus now shifts to the leadership contest itself. Starmer has asked Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to establish a timetable under which nominations will open on 9 July and conclude before Parliament's summer recess, ensuring that a new Labour leader and Prime Minister is in place before Parliament returns in September. Under Labour Party rules, candidates require nominations from 20% of Labour parliamentarians in order to enter the contest.

Therefore, the central question this week is no longer whether Starmer will remain in office, but how the succession process will unfold. With Burnham expected to be sworn into Parliament today and widely viewed as the frontrunner, it remains to be seen whether Labour coalesces quickly around a single candidate or enters a more contested leadership race that could expose deeper divisions within the party.

Tuesday, 23 June – Paramount – WBD state-of-play meeting to offer key indication of DG COMP’s concerns ahead of Phase 1 deadline

The European Commission and the parties to Paramount Skydance’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) are scheduled to hold a state-of-play meeting on Tuesday providing an important procedural checkpoint as Brussels approaches its provisional 7 July Phase I deadline under the EU Merger Regulation (EUMR).

State-of-play meetings are a common feature of complex merger investigations and allow Commission officials and the notifying parties to discuss any competition concerns emerging from the market investigation. While such meetings do not necessarily signal that a transaction faces serious obstacles, they often provide an important indication of whether remedies may be required.

The meeting comes amid an increasingly intensive review process. As outlined in previous reports, the Commission has launched extensive market testing, including detailed questionnaires to industry participants, while recently opening a formal feedback window allowing third parties to submit observations on the transaction. Recent indications suggest that DG COMP is examining the deal well beyond traditional market-share metrics, with particular attention being paid to content licensing, bargaining power, commercial leverage and the wider functioning of the European audiovisual ecosystem.

The review has also attracted an unusual degree of political attention. Several MEPs and audiovisual stakeholders have publicly urged Brussels to scrutinise the transaction closely, citing concerns relating to media plurality, cultural diversity and the position of independent producers and distributors within European markets.

Additional reporting last week suggests that one potential remedy under discussion could involve Skydance terminating its long-standing film distribution joint venture with Universal Pictures, suggesting that the Commission is already exploring potential remedies should concerns persist. Separately, there appears to be an increasing possibility of remedies in the children's broadcasting segment, where Paramount and WBD respectively control Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network. Such a remedy could involve the divestment of one of the channels to a third-party buyer, addressing potential concerns over the concentration of children's content and related intellectual property within a single media group.

Nevertheless, compared with the previously contemplated Netflix-WBD scenario, the Paramount transaction presents limited horizontal overlaps in European streaming markets, reducing the likelihood of major concentration concerns. As a result, Phase I clearance remains the most likely outcome.

That said, the state-of-play meeting should provide the clearest indication yet of whether DG COMP views any concerns as manageable through targeted commitments or whether there is a realistic possibility that the review could extend into a more burdensome Phase II investigation. With the parallel Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) review continuing until 14 July, the coming weeks will prove decisive.