Week Ahead (23 March)

W/C Monday, 23 March – Mainstream parties retain major cities in French municipal runoffs; far right advances unevenly ahead of 2027 presidential race

France concluded the second round of its municipal elections on Sunday in a vote that offers important signals for the political landscape ahead of the April 2027 presidential election.

The results point to a nuanced picture. Mainstream parties of the left, centre and right broadly retained control of the country’s largest urban centres, while both the far right and the hard left continued to consolidate support in more peripheral areas. Overall, the outcome suggests that, despite sustained polling strength at national level, the far right still faces structural barriers in major cities.

Most notably, Socialist candidates and their allies held onto France’s four largest cities, namely Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Lille, providing a significant boost for mainstream forces. In Paris, centre-left candidate Emmanuel Gregoire secured victory, extending the Socialist Party’s long-standing control of the capital. The result reflects both effective consolidation among mainstream voters and continued fragmentation on the left, as the refusal of La France Insoumise (LFI) to align with Socialist candidates limited broader left-wing coordination.

In Marseille, the National Rally (RN) fell short of a highly anticipated breakthrough, despite entering the runoff in a competitive position. A similar pattern emerged in Toulon, where an initially strong RN showing in the first round did not translate into victory, as opposition voters mobilised and right-wing votes remained split. These outcomes underline the continued resilience, albeit conditional, of the so-called “Republican front” dynamic in larger urban areas, where voters across the political spectrum still tend to coalesce against the far right.

However, the elections also highlighted evolving alliance dynamics on the right. In Nice, former Republican Eric Ciotti, backed by RN-aligned forces, secured a clear victory, signalling the growing viability of cooperation between segments of the mainstream right and the far right. This development may prove significant ahead of 2027, as it points to a gradual erosion of traditional political taboos around such alliances.

Beyond major cities, the RN confirmed its strength in smaller municipalities and provincial areas, securing a series of local victories and expanding its territorial footprint. At the same time, LFI made gains in specific urban peripheries, reflecting its appeal among segments of the working-class and younger electorate. These trends reinforce the picture of an increasingly fragmented political geography, with “two Frances” emerging between metropolitan centres and smaller towns.

More broadly, the results offer cautious optimism for mainstream parties ahead of 2027, suggesting that in a head-to-head runoff against a far-right candidate, centrist and traditional parties may still be able to mobilise sufficient support to prevail.  One presidential candidate who will be strengthened by the municipal elections is Edouard Philippe who was re-elected in Le Havre with 47.71% of the vote, defeating the Communist candidate Jean-Paul Lecoq who secured 41.17%.  A poll for RTL and M6, published last night, gives him 18% of the vote in the presidential election, placing him in the second round, against the RN’s Jordan Bardella at 35%.  This puts him significantly ahead of Gabriel Attal (13% of the vote in the first round) and Raphaël Glucksmann (14%).  Things are not looking as bright for former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who lost out in Pau by 344 votes to Socialist Jérome Marbot (42.45% to 41.14%). 

W/C Monday, 23 March – CDU wins Rhineland-Palatinate, ending 35 years of SPD rule; AfD records strongest result in western Germany

Voters in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate went to the polls on Sunday in what was widely seen as a key barometer of public sentiment toward the federal coalition led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, particularly amid declining approval ratings and rising support for the far right. The result follows closely Baden-Württemberg election earlier this month and reinforces several of the broader trends already visible there.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the outcome marked a significant political shift. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) secured first place with around 31% of the vote, overtaking the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and positioning itself to lead the state government for the first time in more than three decades. CDU parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn described the result as “historic,” expressing hope that it would generate a “tailwind” for the party at the federal level.

For the SPD, which had governed the state for 35 years and led the last remaining “traffic-light” coalition (comprised of SPD, Greens, FDP) at the regional level, the result represents another major setback. The party’s vote share fell sharply to approximately 25.9%, compounding its historically weak performance in Baden-Württemberg and reinforcing concerns that participation in the federal coalition with the conservative CDU is eroding its electoral base. The result is likely to intensify internal debates within the SPD over its political direction and its role within the government in Berlin, further complicating cohesion within the federal coalition.

At the same time, the election confirmed the continued expansion of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The party more than doubled its vote share to around 19.5%, marking its strongest-ever result in a western German state. This follows its strong third-place showing in Baden-Württemberg and further illustrates its ability to grow beyond its traditional eastern strongholds. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel welcomed the outcome, stating that “voters appreciate the work we’ve done as opposition party,” while signalling ambitions to enter government in future elections.

The broader party landscape has also narrowed. The Greens secured around 7.9%, while both the centrist Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the left-wing Die Linke party failed to cross the 5% threshold, meaning only four parties are expected to enter the state parliament. This reflects a consolidation of support among the larger parties.

Coalition arithmetic now points toward a CDU-SPD grand coalition, with CDU candidate Gordon Schnieder likely to become Minister-President. The key question is no longer whether such a coalition will form, but rather the balance of power within it, with the CDU clearly emerging as the senior partner.

The result should be read in the broader context of Germany’s “super election year”, which includes upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern later in 2026. Coupled with the Baden-Württemberg elections earlier in March, Rhineland-Palatinate confirms the following pattern: mainstream parties remain competitive but increasingly weakened and fragmented, while the AfD continues to expand its electoral base, including in western regions.

W/C Monday, 23 March – Slovenian elections deliver near tie between liberals and populist right; coalition outcome will be decisive for EU Council dynamics

Adding to a busy weekend electorally, Slovenia’s parliamentary election has resulted in an exceptionally tight outcome, with Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberal Freedom Movement (GS) narrowly edging ahead of Janez Jansa’s right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) but falling well short of a workable majority. With nearly all votes counted, Golob’s party secured around 28.6% (29 seats), compared to roughly 28% (28 seats) for the SDS in the 90-seat parliament, leaving coalition negotiations as the decisive next step.

The result represents a significant shift from 2022, when Golob’s newly formed party won a commanding 41 seats and led a centre-left coalition with the Social Democrats and Levica. Although his government managed to complete a full term, a notable achievement in Slovenia’s fragmented political system, the current outcome reflects a clear erosion of its electoral base, even if Golob has managed to retain a narrow lead.

In his first remarks, Golob framed the result as a reaffirmation of Slovenia’s democratic and pro-European orientation, while pledging to seek a broad-based coalition. For Jansa, the result keeps open a viable path back to power despite finishing second. The SDS remains a highly competitive and disciplined political force, with a stable electorate and extensive governing experience. Jansa characterised the election as a “referendum on corruption”, indicating readiness to challenge aspects of the result.

The campaign itself was marked by heightened political tensions, including allegations of corruption and claims of foreign interference linked to the circulation of covertly recorded videos. Slovenian authorities are investigating whether an Israeli firm was involved, with Golob calling for a broader European-level inquiry, adding an additional layer of geopolitical sensitivity to an already polarised contest.

The fragmentation of the vote among smaller parties further complicates the outlook. Several minor formations, including new anti-establishment and conservative actors, have entered parliament, meaning neither bloc can form a government without complex coalition-building. As a result, the balance of power now rests firmly with smaller parties, increasing the likelihood of protracted negotiations and potential instability.

At the policy level, Golob’s government has pursued a relatively progressive domestic and foreign policy agenda, including social reforms and a more critical stance on Israel, while Jansa has campaigned on a platform of deregulation, tighter migration controls and a reorientation toward more conservative social policies.

Beyond Slovenia, the implications extend to the EU level. In an interview earlier this month, Golob warned that a Jansa victory would align Slovenia more closely with Viktor Orban, stating that “Jansa will be totally on Orban’s side … meaning the two of them will try to break up the EU itself.” Although the election has not produced a decisive shift in that direction, the near tie is a reminder of how balanced the political landscape remains.

Thursday, 26 March – CJEU set to rule in Sanofi Pasteur vaccine liability case with potential implications for EU product liability regime

On Thursday, the Court of Justice of the EU, the bloc’s highest court, is expected to deliver its judgement in LF v. Sanofi Pasteur (C-338/24), a case that could have significant implications for the EU’s product liability framework, particularly in relation to limitation periods and progressive health conditions.

The case originates from proceedings in France involving a claimant who developed a progressive medical condition following vaccination. Her symptoms worsened over time, but her claim was ultimately rejected by French courts as time-barred under national rules implementing the EU’s Product Liability Directive (PLD), notably the Directive’s three-year limitation period and ten-year long-stop period. The referring court has asked the CJEU to clarify whether these time limits are compatible with EU law in cases where harm evolves gradually and may only become fully apparent years later.

More specifically, the Court has been asked to assess whether the Directive’s ten-year expiry period complies with the right to an effective remedy under Article 47 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights when applied to progressive injuries, and whether the three-year limitation period can begin only once the damage has stabilised, rather than when the claimant first became aware of it.

In her non-binding Opinion issued last year, Advocate General Medina proposed a notably expansive interpretation. She suggested that the unconditional application of the ten-year long-stop period may be incompatible with the Charter “in so far as its application has the effect of extinguishing the right to claim compensation of injured persons suffering from a progressive disease”, particularly where claimants cannot fully assess their damage within that timeframe. She further argued that, in such cases, “the three-year limitation period… starts to run on the date of stabilisation of the damage”, defined as the point at which the condition is no longer evolving according to medical evidence.

While the Advocate General’s Opinion is not legally binding, the Court often follows such recommendations in substance. If upheld, the ruling could mark a significant shift in the balance struck by the PLD, potentially expanding avenues for claimants and introducing greater flexibility in how limitation periods are applied in complex medical cases.