Week Ahead (25 November)

Monday 25 November, EBA to hold a public hearing on consultation on guidelines on the application of the structural FX provision

The European Banking Authority (EBA) will hold a public hearing in Paris today on the guidelines for the application of its Structural Foreign Exchange (FX) provision under Article 352(2) of the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), launched last October. The guidelines aim to set out a regulatory framework on Structural FX to address the observed diversity in its application across the EU. The guidelines identify criteria to assist Competent Authorities in their assessment of the structural nature of a foreign-exchange position and whether such position has been deliberately taken for hedging the capital ratio. The consultation runs until 17 January 2020.

Wednesday 27 November, Court of Milan preliminary hearing against Arcelor Mittal’s recess from the Ex Ilva steel plant while M5S wants to wield veto at EU level

On Wednesday Judge Claudio Marangoni will adjudicate on accusations made by the former Ilva caretakers that Arcelo Mittal’s withdrawal from the plant was dictated by commercial interests rather than the removal of the penal shield. State involvement with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) is becoming more likely, possibly with Arcelor Mittal maintaining part of their shares. At the same time, the government- still divided on the issue- is trying to assess the seriousness of the interest informally expressed by the Chinese group Jingye and Turkish group Oyak.

Meanwhile, after a statement by Lega leader Matteo Salvini, M5S are threatening to veto the eurozone bailout fund reform given that, following that scheme, Italy would be required to restructure its public debt before being able to receive ESM aid. Both PM Giuseppe Conte and Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri reaffirmed their willingness not to veto the proposed scheme.

Friday 29 November, Four by-elections to test the mood of Irish voters ahead of likely general election early next year

On Friday, by-elections will take place to find replacements for the seats vacated by Clare Daly, Mick Wallace, Billy Kelleher and Frances Fitzgerald, all of whom became MEPs. The elections take place in the aftermath of a series of expansionary measures in budget 2020 which increased public spending despite being based on ‘no deal’ Brexit assumptions. The government has also announced a series of sports capital grants and a €3 billion broadband rollout programme with cumulative investment in the four constituencies estimated at €190 million. This has led the leader of the opposition Michael Martin to accuse the government of cynicism. A very good outcome for the government would be to win two of the four seats on offer. Fianna Fail will aim to win three of the four seats which would bode well for the party’s chances at next year’s general election.

Friday 29 November, Eurostat release flash estimate inflation for eurozone for November

Eurostat will release flash estimates for inflation for the past month this Friday. As ever, the Eurozone’s flash inflation figures will be closely assessed for any indication of an increase in core inflation, which remains well below target.