Week Ahead (29 June)

Monday, 29 June – EU-China trade talks to test Brussels’ appetite for tougher trade defence measures

Later today, the European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is scheduled to meet Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels against the backdrop of a rapidly widening trade imbalance. China's goods trade surplus with the EU reached €360.6 billion in 2025, around 15% higher than the previous year, while the deficit has continued to widen during the opening months of 2026 as Chinese exports to Europe have continued to accelerate despite slowing domestic demand.

At the same time, Beijing's export restrictions on rare earths and other critical minerals, introduced late last year, have reinforced concerns within Brussels over Europe's strategic dependencies and the vulnerability of key industrial supply chains.

As a result, discussions are expected to focus heavily on Chinese industrial overcapacity, market access, critical raw materials and the future direction of the EU's trade-defence agenda. The meeting follows the European Council earlier this month, where leaders called on the Commission to intensify engagement with key trading partners while ensuring that the EU possesses sufficient instruments to defend its economic interests against unfair competition.

Brussels has increasingly shifted beyond its earlier "de-risking" narrative towards a more explicit focus on protecting Europe's industrial base. Commission officials have been examining a number of potential new instruments, including an "overcapacity" mechanism targeting market distortions created by subsidised imports, alongside a "diversification" instrument that could require companies operating in strategically sensitive sectors to reduce excessive dependence on individual third-country suppliers. 

However, following recent discussions among member states, momentum behind these initiatives appears to have slowed, with any formal legislative proposals now increasingly expected later this year. Divisions between the more ‘’liberal-minded'’ and the more protectionist member states over how far the EU should go in deploying new trade-defence instruments will likely continue to complicate the Commission's room for manoeuvre. Germany is likely to play a decisive role in determining how ambitious any future trade-defence package ultimately becomes given growing signals of a more protectionist shift from Chancellor Merz and his government.

Overall, although today’s talks are unlikely to produce any immediate breakthrough, they are expected to provide an important indication of whether dialogue can narrow differences before Brussels decides later this year whether to move ahead with a broader strengthening of its trade-defence toolkit.

Wednesday, 1 July – Ireland assumes EU Council Presidency with competitiveness, long-term budget and enlargement at the top of the agenda

Ireland will formally assume the rotating six-month Presidency of the Council of the European Union on Wednesday, taking over from Cyprus.  Dublin has placed economic competitiveness at the centre of its programme, pledging to advance the Commission's Competitiveness Roadmap alongside a broad simplification agenda aimed at reducing regulatory burdens across environmental, digital and industrial legislation. The Presidency also intends to prioritise the Savings and Investment Union (SIU), deepen the Single Market through initiatives such as the proposed 28th Regime and Industrial Accelerator Act, and steer negotiations on the recently announced Tech Sovereignty Package, including the revised European Chips Act and broader efforts to strengthen Europe's digital and industrial resilience.

Security and enlargement will also feature prominently. Ireland has reaffirmed its support for continued military, financial and political assistance to Ukraine, while identifying EU enlargement as one of the Presidency's principal political priorities. In particular, Dublin will prioritise progress with Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Albania. Particular attention will focus on Montenegro, widely regarded as the frontrunner in the enlargement process, with Brussels aiming to conclude accession negotiations during the Irish Presidency if remaining benchmarks can be met, potentially keeping the country on track for membership by 2028. 

Importantly, negotiations on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) –one of the most politically sensitive files due to the long-standing division between the ‘’frugal’’ northern member states and the southern member states – will similarly dominate the agenda, with Dublin aiming to make substantial progress toward an agreement by the end of 2026.

The Presidency is nevertheless likely to attract particular attention for its role in shaping EU digital policy. Ireland hosts the European headquarters of many of the world's largest technology companies, including Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft, making it central to the implementation of much of the EU's digital rulebook. Over the coming six months, Dublin is expected to oversee discussions on a range of sensitive files, including the Tech Sovereignty Package, telecoms reform, children's online safety, simplification of digital legislation and broader measures designed to reduce Europe's dependence on foreign technologies.

Overall, Ireland's Presidency begins at a particularly pivotal moment for the bloc: progress across competitiveness, enlargement, digital sovereignty and the next long-term budget likely to shape the bloc's strategic direction well beyond the next six months.

Wednesday, 1 July – Eurozone inflation data to provide first key test of ECB’s post-rate hike strategy ahead of July meeting

Eurostat is scheduled to publish its flash estimate of euro area inflation for June on Wednesday, providing the first major inflation reading since the European Central Bank resumed its tightening cycle earlier this month with a 25-basis-point increase in interest rates. The figures are expected to play a central role in shaping expectations ahead of the ECB's next Governing Council meeting on 22 July.

In line with market expectations, the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June, marking its first rate increase since 2023. As anticipated, policymakers justified the move by pointing to persistent inflationary pressures following the Middle East energy shock and growing evidence that higher energy costs were increasingly feeding through into the wider economy. May inflation had accelerated to 3.2% from 3.0% in April, while core inflation rose to 2.5%, reinforcing concerns that price pressures were becoming more broad-based rather than remaining confined to energy markets.

Although a two-month ceasefire was agreed in the Middle East earlier this month, uncertainty surrounding global energy markets remains elevated, with the Strait of Hormuz technically being open but still subject to significant disruptions, despite the ceasefire. As a result, policymakers will closely monitor whether June's figures show further evidence of second-round effects through transport, logistics and food prices, or whether inflationary pressures have begun to stabilise.

At its June meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde deliberately avoided characterising the rate increase as an "insurance hike", instead stressing that inflationary pressures were broadening and reiterating that the Governing Council would remain data dependent. Although the ECB's updated staff projections still foresee inflation gradually returning towards the 2% target over the medium term, Lagard left the door open to further tightening should incoming data warrant additional action.

Hence, Wednesday's inflation release is likely to become one of the most important inputs into July's policy deliberations. A further upside surprise would strengthen the case for another rate increase as early as next month. On the contrary, signs that inflation is beginning to moderate could reinforce the view that the June move was sufficient to tame inflation without requiring more aggressive tightening, especially given an already weakening growth outlook across the Eurozone.

Thursday, 2 July – CJEU set to rule on Google’s appeal against the record €4.3 billion fine for tying other services to Android

The European Court of Justice (CJEU) is expected to deliver its judgement on Thursday in Google's appeal against the landmark Android antitrust case, bringing to a close one of the European Commission's longest-running and most significant competition enforcement actions against Big Tech.

The case stems from the Commission's July 2018 decision to impose a record €4.34 billion fine after concluding that Google had abused the dominant position of its Android operating system by imposing unlawful restrictions on smartphone manufacturers and mobile network operators. According to the Commission, contractual arrangements requiring manufacturers to pre-install Google Search and Chrome, alongside restrictions on devices running alternative versions of Android, enabled Google to reinforce the dominance of its search engine and foreclose competing services.

In September 2022, the General Court largely upheld the Commission's findings, agreeing that Google had imposed unlawful restrictions designed to consolidate its dominant position in online search. Even though the Court reduced the fine by around 5% to €4.125 billion following a partial disagreement with the Commission's methodology, it upheld the core legal reasoning underpinning the decision. Google subsequently appealed to the CJEU, arguing that the General Court failed to properly establish that its conduct excluded equally efficient competitors.

Importantly, in July 2025, Advocate General Juliane Kokott issued her non-binding opinion recommending that the CJEU dismiss Google's appeal and uphold the reduced €4.125 billion fine. Rejecting Google's central arguments, Kokott concluded that the company had failed to demonstrate any error in the General Court's assessment and argued that comparing Google's conduct with that of a hypothetical equally efficient competitor was inappropriate given Google's entrenched dominance and the network effects within the Android ecosystem. Although Advocate General opinions are not legally binding, the CJEU frequently follows their reasoning, meaning Thursday's judgment will also reveal whether the Court is prepared to endorse that assessment in full.

Since then, Google received another major setback in Brussels. In September 2025, the Commission imposed a further €2.95 billion antitrust fine over alleged abuses in the online advertising technology market, concluding that Google had engaged in self-preferencing across the digital advertising value chain. That decision, which Google is also appealing, became the company's fourth EU competition fine and reinforced Brussels' willingness to continue pursuing large-scale antitrust enforcement despite mounting political pressure from Washington. Thus, President Trump and senior US officials have repeatedly argued that EU competition enforcement, alongside the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA), disproportionately targets American technology companies and amounts to a form of non-tariff barrier against US firms. Brussels has consistently rejected those accusations, insisting that its competition and digital rules apply equally regardless of a company's nationality. 

Against that backdrop, this week’s judgement will be closely watched not only for its legal implications but also for its broader political significance. A decision largely upholding the Commission's landmark Android case would reinforce the EU's antitrust jurisprudence at a time when Brussels continues to pursue an increasingly assertive competition and digital enforcement agenda, while potentially prompting renewed criticism from Washington as transatlantic tensions over the regulation of Big Tech continue to intensify.