Week Ahead (3 November)

W/C Monday, 3 November – Coalition talks to begin in the Netherlands following surprise victory of centrist  

Following last Wednesday’s Dutch general elections, the Netherlands is once again entering lengthy coalition talks, after voters delivered a highly fragmented parliament and no clear majority. The outgoing technocratic government of Prime Minister Dick Schoof collapsed in June after the Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert Wilders withdrew over a hardline migration plan, triggering the snap vote.  

In a surprise outcome, the liberal D66 led by 38-year old Rob Jetten finished first, narrowly ahead of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV), which lost seven seats compared to 2023. The result gives Jetten a mandate to lead coalition negotiations but no easy path to government, with at least 76 seats needed for a parliamentary majority and more than a dozen parties represented in the new chamber. The centre-left GreenLeft–Labour alliance (GL/PvdA) suffered a sharp defeat, losing five seats, prompting its leader, former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans, to announce his resignation on election night. Meanwhile, despite losing two seats compared to 2023, Dilan Yesilgoz’s VVD, the party of ex-PM and current NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, is set to play kingmaker in any future coalition. With 76 seats needed for a majority, both centre-right and centre-left combinations will likely hinge on VVD support. 

The far right remains a significant force, despite PVV’s losses. Smaller parties JA21 and Forum for Democracy (FvD) gained ground, together capturing 15 seats. This reflects not a retreat but a fragmentation of the right-wing populist vote, with around 30% of former PVV voters shifting to JA21. As in 2023, the campaign was dominated by housing shortages, cost of living, healthcare, and migration, with younger voters especially disillusioned over the country’s shortfall of roughly 400,000 affordable homes. 

In Brussels, the result is unlikely to alter Dutch foreign and EU policy, where there remains broad consensus on support for Ukraine, fiscal caution, and a tough US-aligned stance on China following the recent Nexperia chip seizure. However, as coalition talks begin, potentially lasting months, the Netherlands’ influence in Brussels will likely be diminished until a new government is formed. 

Tuesday, 4 November – French Assembly to debate Social Security Bill after pushing talks on Finance Bill to mid-November 

The National Assembly is set to miss tomorrow’s 4 November deadline to complete examination of the first part of France’s 2026 Finance Bill (PLF), which covers revenue-raising measures. After two weeks of debates and more than 3,000 amendments, MPs have examined fewer than a third, and discussions have now been formally suspended until 13 November. In the meantime, lawmakers will shift focus to the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), set to be debated from 5 to 12 November. 

The delay follows a tense and politically charged week in Paris. On Friday, MPs rejected both versions of the proposed “Zucman tax” on ultra-high-net-worth individuals, the original 2% levy on assets above €100 million and the Socialists’ lighter 3% version applying to assets over €10 million but excluding family-run and “innovative” firms. Instead, the Assembly had approved a 2% levy on assets held in non-productive holding companies, a government compromise expected to raise around €1 billion, targeting roughly 4,000 entities that serve mainly to reduce individuals’ tax liabilities. To calm tensions and preserve Socialist support, crucial for the government’s survival, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced that he was ready to lift the freeze on pensions and welfare benefits and open to increasing the CSG tax on wealth. The Prime Minister’s office has launched a new round of talks with the Socialists, Greens, and Communists whose abstention or support is needed to prevent a no-confidence vote. 

Under France’s constitutional timetable, the Assembly has 40 days from the start of budget debate to complete both parts of the PLF, a deadline that expires 23 November. The aim remains for Parliament to reach a final decision by 23 December, allowing for Constitutional Council review and presidential enactment before year-end.  

With more than 2,000 amendments still outstanding and the Finance Bill now pushed back to mid-November and no clear consensus in sight, the risk of rolling over the 2025 budget or adopting the 2026 text by ordinance has risen significantly. Lecornu continues to defend his target of a 4.9% of GDP deficit next year, but that goal is becoming harder to justify politically. 

Tuesday, 4 November – DG COMP deadline on MMG-Anglo American deal; in-depth probe likely 

The European Commission faces a 4 November deadline to decide whether to open an in-depth Phase II investigation into China-owned MMG’s $500 million acquisition of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel operations. The deal has raised red flags in Brussels over potential risks to Europe’s access to ferronickel, a key input for stainless steel production. 

MMG, controlled by China Minmetals Corporation, submitted a remedy package on 14 October offering to sell part of its ferronickel output to Anglo American for resale to European steelmakers over a 10-year period. Despite the offered remedies, EU officials fear that MMG could still restrict ferronickel exports to the EU, tightening supply in a market already under strain and increasing Europe’s dependency on Chinese-controlled sources. European steelmakers have raised similar warnings. Anglo American said it continues to work with Brussels “to ensure continued access to sustainably produced ferronickel.” 

Furthermore, DG COMP has not yet market-tested the offer, a sign officials remain unconvinced. Over the last days, expectations have surged that the case will move to Phase II, which could last up to three months. 

If confirmed, the probe would mark an early test of Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera’s emerging “resilience” lens in merger control. In a speech at the Lisbon Conference on Competition Law and Economics earlier this month, Ribera said that “resilience may become increasingly relevant” in merger assessments, noting that forthcoming guidance will highlight when deals strengthen supply security or critical input access. Conversely, she warned the Commission will “scrutinise mergers that reduce resilience by eliminating essential suppliers or forcing customers to take riskier alternatives.”  

The MMG–Anglo case could therefore set an important precedent for how DG COMP integrates strategic autonomy and supply-chain resilience into its future merger review framework. 

Tuesday, 4 November – European Commission to unveil 2025 Enlargement package  

Tomorrow, Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos will present the 2025 Enlargement Package to the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee (AFET). The package, the EU’s annual progress report on candidate and potential candidate countries, will take stock of reforms across the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and will inform Parliament’s upcoming country resolutions and recommendations.  

While the Commission had initially planned to present alongside it the long-awaited “pre-enlargement policy reviews”, its internal blueprint for preparing the Union institutionally and financially for future accessions, those reviews have now been postponed with a likely release on 19 November. 

The delay underlines the political sensitivity of the exercise. The reviews, first mandated by the June 2024 European Council conclusions, are meant to translate leaders’ call for “enlargement and reform to go hand in hand” into concrete proposals. They are expected to address politically sensitive issues such as decision-making (qualified majority voting vs unanimity), budgetary implications for cohesion and agriculture, and institutional adjustments to accommodate a future EU of 30+ members. 

For candidate countries, many of which have waited more than a decade to advance (e.g. North Macedonia since 2004 and Montenegro since 2008), the package tomorrow will assess reform progress and signal whether Brussels is prepared to move ahead with gradual integration to maintain momentum as the wider debate over institutional reform is deferred to the coming months. 

Thursday, 6 November – Bank of England to hold Monetary Policy Council; expected to maintain rates at 4% 

The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday, which would mark its second consecutive pause following September’s meeting and after a series of quarterly 25-basis-point cuts, reducing the rates by 125 basis points since August 2024. 

According to a Reuters poll, conducted between 22–28 October, 87% of economists anticipate the BoE will hold rates this week, reflecting concern over still-elevated inflation at 3.8% in September, unchanged from August but nearly double the 2% target. Expectations of another rate cut before year-end have weakened, with futures pricing now implying just a 58% probability of one by December. 

Instead, economists now see the BoE’s next easing cycle resuming in early 2026, with most forecasting the Bank Rate at 3.75% by March and 3.50% by mid-2026 as inflation trends lower.  The likely pause will also come ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’s 26 November budget, which is expected to feature tax increases aimed at meeting fiscal targets, a move that could further reinforce the BoE’s cautious stance. 

Even though inflation is projected to average 3.6% this quarter and fall to 2.3% by end-2026, a weakening labour market and subdued growth outlook, with the GDP seen rising 0.2–0.4% per quarter through 2026, suggest the BoE will maintain a data-dependent approach before resuming cuts early next year.