Week Ahead (9 February)

W/C Monday, 9 February – Pressure intensified on Sanchez at national level following heavy Socialist defeat in Aragon regional elections 

Spain’s ruling Socialists (PSOE) suffered a significant setback in Sunday’s regional elections in the northeastern region of Aragon, the first of three regional elections scheduled in the coming months and widely regarded as a barometer for national political trends. Since Spain’s return to democracy in 1977, the party that has topped the vote in Aragon has also gone on to win the subsequent general election, earning the region the nickname “Spanish Ohio.” This means that the symbolic weight of the result is significant. 

With 99% of ballots counted, the centre-right Popular Party (PP) finished first with 34.3% of the vote, securing 26 seats in the 67-member regional assembly. Although the PP lost two seats compared to the previous election and remains short of an outright majority, it retained its position as the largest force in the region. 

The Socialists, by contrast, fell to 24.3% and 18 seats, a loss of five seats and matching their weakest historical performance in Aragon. The far-right Vox emerged as the main beneficiary of voter realignment, doubling its previous representation to 14 seats on 17.9% of the vote, further strengthening momentum to the right. The result leaves Vox in a decisive position to extract policy concessions in exchange for supporting a PP-led administration, following its earlier withdrawal of backing that had triggered the snap ballot. 

Although one additional regional defeat will not automatically trigger early general elections, which are due by July 2027 at the latest, yesterday’s loss is expected to reinforce the narrative of PSOE’s national decline and intensify pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. December’s heavy defeat in Extremadura, where the Socialists lost 10 seats and recorded their worst-ever regional result there, already shifted momentum to the right. A similar outcome in Aragon would deepen that perception and raise the stakes ahead of the two remaining regional ballots in Castilla y Leon (March) and Andalusia (June). Those contests could prove more consequential if they consolidate a broader right-wing surge. 

The political backdrop remains challenging for Sanchez. Since 2024, his government has been overshadowed by a series of corruption-related investigations. The so-called “toxic triangle” cases involving Santos Cerdan, Jose Luis Abalos and Koldo Garcia, centred on alleged kickbacks linked to public contracts, have inflicted sustained reputational damage. The Supreme Court in December opened oral proceedings against Abalos and Garcia in the so-called masks case, while investigations into Cerdan continue. In parallel, Sanchez’s wife Begona Gomez faces trial over alleged misuse of public funds, and his brother David Sanchez is set to stand trial for influence peddling in May. While Sanchez denies wrongdoing and has thus far weathered the storm, the accumulation of legal developments keeps corruption narratives in the headlines. 

Institutionally, Sanchez governs through a fragile minority coalition with Sumar, reliant on Catalan and Basque nationalist parties following the controversial separatist amnesty that damaged him nationally. No budget has been passed this term, with Spain operating under a rolled-over 2023 framework. Despite relatively strong macroeconomic performance in 2024–25, economic growth has not translated into improved polling for the government. Aggregate early 2026 polling places the PP around the low 30s nationally, with PSOE trailing by several points and Vox polling close to 18%, suggesting that any future right-wing majority would likely depend on formal PP–Vox cooperation. 

For now, Sanchez’s short-term survival remains the base case: the PP and Vox lack the numbers for a no-confidence motion, and Sanchez’s regional partners have limited incentive to install a right-wing government in Madrid. However, Sunday’s result strengthens the opposition’s claim that the national tide is turning. If forthcoming regional ballots confirm a similar trend, pressure to reconsider the electoral calendar could intensify. 

Tuesday, 10 February – CJEU judgement on WhatsApp challenge to EDPB powers 

Tomorrow, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) is scheduled to deliver its judgement in Case C-97/23P, WhatsApp Ireland v. European Data Protection Board, a closely watched case concerning the scope of the EDPB’s authority in cross-border GDPR enforcement and the standing of companies to challenge its binding decisions directly before EU courts. 

As previously flagged in our March 2025 tech report, Advocate General Tamara Capeta issued a non-binding opinion backing WhatsApp’s legal challenge. She argued that WhatsApp should be allowed to contest the EDPB’s binding decision before the EU courts, reasoning that because the Irish Data Protection Commission (DPC) had no discretion when implementing the Board’s instructions, the EDPB ruling was “effectively the final decision” vis-à-vis the company. On that basis, she considered that WhatsApp should have  its place of standing (locus standi) at EU level. 

The case originates from a 2021 decision by the Irish DPC imposing a €225 million fine on WhatsApp for alleged GDPR breaches. The amount was significantly increased after the EDPB intervened under the GDPR’s “one-stop shop” mechanism, issuing a binding decision that directed the Irish authority to amend its draft ruling. WhatsApp argued that it should have been able to challenge the EDPB’s binding intervention directly, rather than being limited to contesting the Irish authority’s final decision before national courts. 

In 2022, the General Court rejected WhatsApp’s action, holding that the EDPB’s decision was formally addressed to the Irish DPC and did not produce direct legal effects vis-à-vis WhatsApp. According to the Court, any judicial remedy had to be pursued within the national legal system, in line with the EU’s “complementary system” of judicial review. WhatsApp appealed, arguing that this framework is unworkable in complex cross-border cases where national authorities are effectively bound by EDPB instructions. 

If the CJEU follows the Advocate General’s reasoning, the ruling could significantly recalibrate judicial oversight in EU data protection enforcement. A finding that companies have standing to challenge EDPB binding decisions directly would strengthen scrutiny of EU-level coordination under the GDPR and potentially reshape litigation strategy in ongoing cross-border cases, particularly those involving Meta and repeated EDPB interventions against the Irish DPC. 

Conversely, if the Court upholds the General Court’s restrictive approach, it would reaffirm the current enforcement architecture, leaving companies to contest EDPB-driven outcomes primarily through national proceedings. Either way, Tuesday’s judgement is expected to clarify the balance of powers between national data protection authorities and the EU-level Board under the GDPR’s one-stop-shop system. 

Tuesday, 10 February – European Commission decision due on Google-Wiz merger amid mounting third-party pressure 

Also tomorrow, the European Commission is due to issue its decision on Google’s proposed $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz. The deal was formally notified at the beginning of January at Google’s request, triggering the start of the EU merger review – the US antitrust authorities have already cleared the deal. 

Despite growing pressure from European cloud providers and civil society groups, the review now appears to be moving toward a conditional or unconditional Phase I clearance. That prospect has intensified criticism from industry stakeholders who argue that the transaction raises structural concerns extending beyond conventional horizontal overlaps. Last month, European cloud infrastructure providers grouped under Cloud Infrastructure Services Providers in Europe (CISPE) urged DG COMP to scrutinise the acquisition closely, warning that Google ownership of Wiz could reinforce customer lock-in across its cloud ecosystem.  

Civil society groups have now added to that pressure. A coalition including the Open Markets Institute, Balanced Economy Project and SOMO has formally called on DG COMP to open a Phase II probe. In a legal submission, the groups argue that Wiz today acts as a neutral security layer across Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. Under Google’s ownership, they warn of potential “soft degradation”, subtle interoperability or product design choices that could advantage Google Cloud without overt foreclosure, gradually weakening rival platforms. The coalition also flags broader ecosystem risks, suggesting that the integration of Wiz with Google’s existing security tools and Gemini AI capabilities could deepen switching costs and entrench dependence on Google’s cloud stack. 

For the Commission, the case has become a politically sensitive test of how EU merger control should address vertical integration and ecosystem effects in cloud and AI markets. This is particularly relevant given estimates that US hyperscalers control roughly 70–80% of the European cloud market and the growing strategic importance of cybersecurity and AI-enabled infrastructure. 

If cleared in Phase I this week, the decision would indicate that DG COMP does not see the transaction as crossing traditional merger control thresholds. Nevertheless, the growing volume of third-party interventions reflects broader concerns over how the bloc’s competition policy should respond to vertical integration and ecosystem power in cloud and AI markets. 

Thursday, 12 February – Informal European leaders meeting to test political appetite for competitiveness agenda amid growing geoeconomic pressures 

EU leaders will gather on 12 February at Alden Biesen Castle in Belgium for an informal retreat convened by European Council President Antonio Costa, with competitiveness and the future of the Single Market at the centre of discussions. The meeting comes nearly two years after Enrico Letta’s April 2024 report on the Single Market and around 18 months after Mario Draghi’s September 2024 report on competitiveness, both of which warned that Europe risks falling further behind the US and China in productivity, innovation and industrial scale. 

Costa has framed the retreat as an attempt to replicate the political momentum generated by last year’s defence-focused brainstorming. This time, the objective is to inject similar urgency into competitiveness policy in a markedly harsher geoeconomic environment. Discussions will be structured around two broad axes: first, how the EU should position itself amid intensifying economic rivalry, trade imbalances and coercion risks; second, what internal reforms are required to deepen the Single Market, reduce regulatory fragmentation and enable European firms to scale. 

Draghi and Letta have been invited to brief leaders on how their recommendations have evolved in light of shifting geopolitical realities. Draghi, speaking this week in Leuven, warned that Europe risks becoming “subordinated, divided and deindustrialised” if it fails to defend its economic interests, arguing that external pressures, including US tariffs and strategic competition with China, make integration and industrial capacity-building more urgent than ever. His report had estimated that closing the competitiveness gap could require €750–800 billion in additional annual investment, alongside deeper capital markets integration and greater policy coordination. 

The agenda reflects several strands of the Draghi–Letta blueprint that remain only partially implemented. These include accelerating the completion of the Banking Union and Capital Markets Union, reducing national barriers within the Single Market, and exploring a “28th regime” to simplify cross-border business operations. Consolidation in strategic sectors such as digital, telecoms, energy and capital markets is also expected to feature, amid ongoing tensions between the need for greater scale and competition policy constraints. 

The discussion is taking place against the backdrop of both external and internal pressure. On Wednesday, just one day before the retreat, industrial leaders will convene in Antwerp for a renewed “Antwerp Declaration,” where CEOs from energy-intensive and manufacturing sectors are expected to reiterate calls for faster implementation of industrial and competitiveness reforms. At the political level, a coalition of Baltic and Nordic countries, joined by the Netherlands, has circulated a non-paper urging a renewed push to deepen the Single Market, including automatic recognition of professional qualifications and support for a 28th regime.  

The informal format means no binding conclusions are expected. However, Costa has indicated that discussions will feed directly into preparations for the formal March European Council. A key thing to watch this week will be whether leaders agree on a more coherent political direction, particularly on financing instruments, regulatory simplification, consolidation policy and trade defence in spite of longstanding national sensitivities.