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Week Ahead (14 November)

Monday, 14 November - Data on arrivals of Ukrainian refugees in Ireland to be released

Updated data on the number of Ukrainian refugees to have arrived in Ireland since the beginning of Russia's invasion will be released on Monday.

By 25 September 2022, there were 54,771 arrivals from Ukraine to Ireland since the Russian invasion in February. In March, the government activated the EU Temporary Protection Directive which grants Ukrainian people the right to work and access to services and social benefits. Last month, the EU announced the extension of the special protection status for Ukrainian refugees by one year, up until March 2024.

With inflation data released last week showing prices increased by 9.2% in October, a 38 year high, combined with the additional pressures Ukrainian refugees are putting on housing, education, and medical facilities, some form of public backlash may be unavoidable.

Tuesday, 15 November - Eurostat flash GDP and employment estimate for Q3 to be released

On Tuesday, Eurostat will release its latest flash estimate of GDP and employment statistics for Q3 2022, confirming a forecast anticipating near-stagnation growth.

According to the European Commission’s autumn forecast, published last Friday, GDP in the EU and Eurozone will contract in Q4 and Q1 2023 before returning to modest growth in Q2. In 2023, only four EU countries are expected to experience economic growth over 1% (Bulgaria, Ireland, Malta and Romania) while Germany and Sweden are expected to see their economies shrink by 0.6%.

Wednesday, 16 November – Thursday 17 November - Chancellor Hunt to unveil full Autumn budget, a day after the release of UK inflation data

On Thursday, UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will unveil the long-anticipated Autumn budget statement, including debt-cutting plans through deep spending cuts and increased taxes. Prime Minister Sunak has warned that his government will need ‘’to take difficult decisions’’ to restore economic stability and confidence in the UK economy, in an effort to calm financial markets, following the market upheaval caused during Liz Truss’ 45-day tenure as Prime Minister. Thus, Hunt, who already reversed several of his predecessor’s policies, is expected to outline tax rises and spending cuts worth around £60 billion in the Autumn budget, including an extension of a windfall tax on excessive revenues of energy producers to 2028.

The budget will be unveiled a day after the release of inflation data for October, by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS). Last month, inflation moved back to its 40-year high in September, rising to 10.1%, prompting BoE’s rate hike of 75-basis point last week, the biggest interest rate hike in 33 years.

Thursday, 17 November – ECON to discuss Corporate Due Diligence bill

On Thursday, the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament will discuss a corporate due diligence bill, aiming to increase scrutiny on companies for environmental, social, and governance risks (ESG), ensuring their supply chains are sustainable.

In February this year, the European Commission published a proposal for a ‘’just and sustainable economy’’, laying down rules for companies to respect human rights and the environment in global value chains. Since then, a debate has been taking place across the Parliament and the Council over how far the regulation should go in holding businesses accountable for their societal and environmental impact across global supply chains. The European Parliament draft calls for widening the scope of businesses falling under due diligence obligations, by lowering the threshold to 250 employees from the Commission’s suggested threshold of 500 employees.

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