Week Ahead (22 April)

W/C Tuesday, 22 April – German coalition likely to announce new cabinet as ministerial talks enter final stage 

With the coalition agreement between CDU/CSU and SPD finalised earlier this month, Berlin is now entering the final phase of government formation, as both parties move to confirm their ministerial candidates ahead of the official cabinet announcement. Although the allocation of portfolios has already been agreed upon, the internal selection of names is ongoing, and final party votes are scheduled to conclude by 28–29 April. As a result, the full list of ministers is expected to emerge this week. 

As outlined in the 146-page agreement titled “Responsibility for Germany”, the CDU/CSU will lead the Chancellery under Friedrich Merz as well as key ministries including Foreign Affairs, Economic Affairs & Energy, Health, Transport, and a newly established Digitalisation Ministry. Despite reaching its worst-ever electoral result in February (16%), SPD managed to secure seven ministries, among them Defence, Finance, Labour, Environment and Climate Protection, and Housing, capitalising on its leverage as the only viable coalition partner for CDU/CSU. Finally, CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU, will take over the Interior and Agriculture portfolios, in addition to heading a new Ministry for Research, Technology and Space. 

Some leading names for key positions have already emerged. Boris Pistorius is widely expected to remain Defence Minister and assume the Vice-Chancellorship, while Lars Klingbeil is seen as the frontrunner for Finance. For the Foreign Ministry, Johann Wadephul is considered the leading CDU candidate, though former party leader Armin Laschet is also vying for a potential political comeback. Kristina Sinemus, who is currently serving as the Hessian State Minister for Digital Strategy, is tipped to lead the new Ministry for Digital Affairs. 

Beyond names, the reorganisation of certain ministries reflects shifting policy priorities. CDU’s retake of the Economy Ministry, now reintegrated with Energy, signals a return to the Merkel-era structure and a pivot away from the Greens’ activist industrial policy. Meanwhile, the SPD’s new Climate and Environment Ministry consolidates environmental and climate responsibilities under a single portfolio, a structural shift designed to ensure continuity on climate goals even without Green participation in government. 

The new cabinet is likely to be formally confirmed in early May, with Merz expected to be elected by the Bundestag as Chancellor around 6 or 7 May. His first official visit is expected to be to Paris for a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, an early signal of the coalition’s desire to reset Franco-German coordination amid wider European reform debates. 

Thursday, 24 April – European Parliament’s committee to vote on EDIP 

On Thursday, the European Parliament’s Committee on Security & Defence is set to vote on its final position regarding the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), a key legislative initiative aimed at accelerating the reindustrialisation of Europe’s defence sector. The committee vote comes after political groups agreed earlier this month on a final compromise text, which will serve as the Parliament’s negotiating mandate for upcoming interinstitutional talks with the Council. 

Even though the Commission’s original proposal earmarked €1.5 billion between 2025 and 2027, Parliament is now calling for an additional €15 billion, though this would not necessarily need to come from the €150 billion SAFE loan facility, signalling a clear preference for a more flexible approach to resourcing. The revised draft also maintains the baseline eligibility requirement that at least 70% of the value of EDIP-funded end products must originate from EU member states or associated countries. 

Launched in 2024, EDIP’s broader aim is to boost Europe’s defence production capacity, reduce fragmentation, and support joint procurement. It includes mechanisms such as subsidies for collaborative acquisitions and VAT exemptions for the joint ownership of defence capabilities. Notably, the programme would also extend eligibility to Ukrainian defence companies, granting them a near-EU status within EDIP frameworks. 

However, the programme’s strategic direction remains politically charged. France, which has strongly backed EDIP, has also been vocal about maintaining a strict “Buy European” approach. President Emmanuel Macron has argued that increased defence spending must serve to strengthen Europe’s industrial base, not expand dependence on US-made systems. Indicatively, in February, French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu warned that Paris would rather scrap the programme entirely than allow it to fund non-EU weapons produced under licence in Europe. This position is in direct contrast with that of Poland and the Baltic states, which have pushed for greater inclusion of non-EU NATO allies such as the UK, US, and Canada, citing their vital role in European defence. These disagreements have contributed to delays in the Council’s position, with member states in the Working Party on Defence Industry yet to finalise their negotiating mandate. Once that is secured, trilogue negotiations with Parliament can begin. 

Following the 24 April committee vote, a plenary vote is scheduled for 5 May, paving the way for interinstitutional talks. A similar debate is currently unfolding around the more ambitious ReArm Europe initiative and its €150 billion SAFE programme, where divisions persist over whether third countries such as Canada and the UK should be allowed to participate in joint procurement efforts supported by EU funds. 

Thursday 24 April – Von der Leyen to meet with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss energy cooperation amid broader push for post-Brexit '’reset’’ 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to London on Thursday to meet Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as the EU and the UK intensify efforts to reset relations across key policy areas including energy, climate, defence, and security. Von der Leyen’s visit coincides with a two-day London summit on energy security, co-hosted by UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, with participation from energy ministers across IEA member states. 

The event is expected to serve as a platform for demonstrating the Labour government’s climate and energy transition agenda, and for deepening EU–UK coordination on the phasing out of fossil fuels, renewables investment, and net-zero commitments. Energy has emerged as a top priority in post-Brexit cooperation, with both sides exploring ways to improve the currently fragmented electricity trading arrangements, which are set to expire in June 2026. In addition, there is growing industry pressure to align the UK and EU carbon trading systems and to coordinate their carbon border adjustment mechanisms, areas where Brussels and London share long-term climate goals, but follow diverging regulatory pathways. 

The energy talks feed directly into wider discussions on security and defence cooperation, ahead of the highly anticipated UK–EU summit on 19 May, which aims to deliver tangible outcomes across multiple policy tracks. Even though diplomatic sources have expressed optimism that a new EU-UK defence pact is within reach, negotiations remain complicated by non-defence trade-offs, particularly France and Denmark’s insistence on preserving EU fishing access to UK waters beyond 2026. Thus, France is leading opposition to UK participation in joint procurement under the €150 billion SAFE defence fund, seeing the SAFE file as potential leverage in the broader Brexit reset talks. 

Against this backdrop, this week’s meeting will be closely watched for signs of growing political momentum ahead of next month’s bilateral summit.  

Friday, 25 April – European Commission to conclude public consultation on the draft Clean Industrial State Aid Framework 

On Friday, the European Commission is set to conclude its public consultation on the draft Clean Industrial State Aid Framework (CISAF), as it moves closer to proposing a new set of guidelines by June. The revised framework will aim to give EU governments greater flexibility to support industrial decarbonisation, particularly in strategic green sectors such as batteries, solar, and wind power. 

The CISAF is a core component of the Commission’s wider Clean Industrial Deal, presented in February as part of its effort to modernise EU industrial policy and reduce the burden of high energy costs, regulatory complexity, and slow investment uptake. Among the Deal’s broader proposals were revisions to merger assessment guidelines, aimed at giving more weight to factors such as innovation, resilience, affordability, and sustainability, a move that signals a shift away from the EU’s traditionally strict market concentration focus. 

Hence, state aid for clean technology manufacturing will likely be subject to a more permissive approach, reflecting growing concerns across the bloc about Europe’s industrial competitiveness in the face of rising global pressure, especially from the US Inflation Reduction Act and China’s expansive subsidies. Approval procedures are also expected to be streamlined to speed up the rollout of national support schemes. 

This evolution in approach echoes several of the core messages in Mario Draghi’s September 2024 report on European competitiveness, which called on the EU to adopt a more strategic and coordinated industrial policy. Draghi urged the Commission to rethink how competition policy, investment incentives, and innovation tools are deployed, especially in sectors critical to the green and digital transitions.