Week Ahead (17 March)

Tuesday, 18 March – German court to rule on Apple’s appeal against FCO’s competition designation

Tomorrow, a German court will deliver a key ruling on Apple’s appeal against its designation as a company of “paramount significance” under Section 19a of the German Competition Act. The Federal Cartel Office (FCO), the country’s antitrust watchdog, assigned this status to Apple in April 2023, placing it under heightened antitrust scrutiny alongside other Big Tech firms such as Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft. Apple has challenged this designation, arguing that it unfairly subjects the company to additional regulatory oversight. The outcome of this case will determine whether the FCO can continue imposing special abuse controls on Apple, potentially shaping the enforcement of Germany’s landmark competition rules.

This week’s ruling follows last month’s preliminary assessment by the FCO, in which the regulator accused Apple of abusing its market dominance through its App Tracking Transparency framework (ATTF). The FCO’s three-year investigation found that Apple’s tracking policies applied stricter requirements to third-party developers while exempting its own services, potentially violating both German competition law and the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). Apple rejected the allegations, claiming that ATTF is applied fairly to all developers and that its privacy controls have broad support from consumers and data protection authorities.

The FCO’s concerns focus on three key areas: Apple’s definition of tracking, which limits third parties more than it does Apple’s own data collection; consent dialogues, which the regulator argues are designed to steer users toward allowing Apple’s tracking while rejecting third-party tracking; and user experience design, which allegedly favours Apple’s advertising ecosystem. If Apple loses its appeal, the company could face daily fines, regulatory restrictions, or potential structural remedies if it does not address the FCO’s concerns.

In an effort to address these regulatory concerns Meta announced in November an updated version of its ‘’pay or ok model’’. It introduces a series of changes, including a reduction in the cost of its ad-free subscription service in the EU, cutting it by 40%. More importantly, it also introduced a new subscription option with a new "less-personalised" ad experience for Facebook and Instagram.  These ads will be based on limited data points such as the user’s age, location, gender, and interactions within the app, rather than a more comprehensive profile; it remains to be seen whether these changes will be sufficient in addressing the broader regulatory scrutiny of its ‘’pay or ok model’’.  

Tuesday 18 March – European Commission to issue its order on Apple’s interoperability requirements under DMA

Also tomorrow, the European Commission is set to issue a crucial ruling on how Apple must modify its iPhone ecosystem to comply with the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The decision, part of the DMA’s specification procedure, will lay out the precise steps Apple must take to ensure interoperability between iOS and competing devices and software. This will be the first of other enforcement measures expected under the landmark regulation in the coming days, with the inaugural non-compliance probes into Apple, Meta, and Google set to conclude by 24 March.

The timing of this ruling is particularly sensitive given rising transatlantic tensions over EU tech regulations, with President Trump and senior members of his administration likening EU regulatory fines to tariffs. Last month, the White House warned that aggressive enforcement against US tech firms could prompt retaliatory tariffs on European exports, such as automobiles and wine. With the Trump administration taking a harder line against EU digital policies, this week’s decision could further escalate the dispute between Brussels and Washington.

The Commission’s move follows interim findings published in December, which suggested regulators were leaning toward a stricter interpretation of Apple’s interoperability obligations. Apple has fiercely resisted these measures, arguing that mandated changes could weaken security and privacy protections for users. The company has also warned that competitors such as Meta could exploit these requirements to gain broader access to its ecosystem. The public version of the decision tomorrow will outline Apple’s compliance obligations and the timeline for implementation.

Wednesday 19 March – European Commission to publish communication on Savings and Investment Union

On Wednesday, the European Commission will unveil its Communication on the EU Savings and Investment Union (SIU), outlining a strategic roadmap to strengthen capital markets, mobilise private investment, and improve financial market integration across the EU. A draft version of the document has already been circulated in Brussels with the Commission’s approach largely building on past initiatives under the Capital Markets Union (CMU) and Banking Union.

The SIU will aim to tackle key structural challenges in the EU financial system, including underperforming financial intermediation, fragmented capital markets, and the EU’s heavy reliance on bank deposits over market-based investment. With an estimated €750-800 billion annual investment gap identified by Draghi and Letta, the Commission sees deeper financial integration as critical to achieving EU strategic objectives in innovation, decarbonisation, digital transformation, and defence.

The Communication will propose measures to encourage retail investment, expand venture capital and equity financing, and reduce regulatory barriers limiting cross-border capital flows. Key actions include boosting financial literacy, facilitating access to EU-backed investment products, modernising pension systems, and improving the supervisory framework for financial markets. The Commission is also expected to introduce targeted reforms to strengthen IPO markets, enhance trading structures, and review tax incentives for long-term investment.

A timeline for implementation is set between 2025 and 2027, with major initiatives including a Financial Literacy Strategy (Q3 2025), pension reform recommendations (Q3 2025 & Q2 2026), and a mid-2026 Infrastructure Package to modernise securities trading and financial collateral rules. A mid-term review in 2027 will assess progress and determine the need for additional reforms. The upcoming European Council summit is expected to call for an accelerated rollout of the SIU, with draft conclusions urging the Commission to move forward swiftly. The broader geopolitical landscape, particularly the potential impact of a Trump administration on global financial markets, is likely to add further urgency to the discussion, pushing the EU to finally speed up financial market integration.

Wednesday, 19 March – European Commission to unveil White Paper on Defence

Also on Wednesday, the European Commission will officially present its long-awaited White Paper on Defence, outlining a major policy shift aimed at reversing decades of underinvestment and strengthening Europe’s security capabilities. An early draft has already been circulated, providing insights into the strategic direction prepared by Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. At its core, the White Paper focuses on increasing defence spending, accelerating military support to Ukraine, creating a Single Market for Defence, and launching large-scale EU defence projects. It also reinforces Europe’s push for greater strategic autonomy.

The piece distinguishes between short-term (2025) and long-term (2026-2030) priorities. One of the most pressing concerns outlined in the White Paper is urgent military support for Ukraine, given that the US is scaling back its support. The White Paper highlights several short-term priorities, including:

·      Delivering 1.5 million rounds of artillery shells in 2025 to meet Ukraine’s immediate battlefield needs.

·      Procuring advanced air defence systems, long-range missiles, and drones to counter Russia’s ongoing aerial attacks.

·      Direct EU investment in Ukraine’s defence industry, which is expected to reach a €35 billion production capacity by 2025.

·      Establishing an EU-Ukraine Defence Task Force to coordinate procurement and military support efforts.

Beyond Ukraine, the White Paper stresses that Europe’s own military mobility remains a critical weakness, noting that outdated transport infrastructure and bureaucratic delays continue to hamper the rapid movement of troops and equipment. To address this, the Commission is expected to propose measures such as upgrading four priority transport corridors for military logistics across Europe, modernising key infrastructure projects, and eliminating bureaucratic red tape by streamlining military transport approvals and border procedures.

·      In terms of long-term priorities, the White Paper also outlines structural reforms to strengthen Europe’s fragmented defence industry, noting that the EU suffers from duplicated procurement efforts, inefficient production lines, and reliance on third-country suppliers. The Commission will seek to address these challenges by proposing measures including harmonising defence procurement rules, encouraging cross-border defence industrial cooperation, and introducing a "European Preference" in defence contracts, ensuring that more procurement stays within the EU.

In terms of financing mechanism, the report acknowledges that rebuilding Europe’s defence will require massive financial commitments over the next decade. Reiterating von der Leyen’s ‘’REARM Europe’’ plan, announced earlier this month, the White Paper identifies five core funding mechanisms:

·      €150 billion in EU-backed loans (REARM Initiative) to finance joint procurement of critical military capabilities.

·      €650 billion in additional spending flexibility unlocked through the activation of the "escape clause" in EU fiscal rules.

·      Repurposing the EU budget and cohesion funds to channel more resources into defence.

·      Expanding European Investment Bank (EIB) funding to support infrastructure and military production.

·      Attracting private capital investment into defence startups and military innovation.

As explained below, White Paper is set to be a major topic of debate at this week’s European Council summit.

Thursday 20 March - Friday, 21 March – European Council to be held

On Thursday and Friday, EU leaders will hold an official summit in Brussels, only two weeks after their extraordinary summit dedicated to exploring ways of supporting Ukraine and the long-term financing of the bloc’s defence needs. This week’s summit will largely be centred around the key proposals of the European Commission’s White Paper on Defence for strengthening the EU’s defence capabilities, increasing military spending, and establishing a more integrated European defence industry.

Despite a broader consensus on the need to ramp up defence spending, Member States remain divided on financing, with some pushing for joint EU-backed loans while others prefer nationally controlled spending. The debate over whether the EIB should expand its role in defence financing will also likely figure in the discussions and has been gaining significant traction in recent months. Ukraine will feature prominently on the agenda following a ceasefire plan agreed earlier in March between Zelensky and Trump, shifting the pressure onto Russia to respond. The latest draft of the Council conclusions calls on Moscow to “show real political will to end the war,” while reaffirming that the EU and its Member States stand ready to participate in a peace process and help secure a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. Security guarantees for Ukraine will be another priority, especially as Washington moves toward a more limited role.

Alongside the ceasefire talks, leaders will discuss immediate military support. The EU’s diplomatic body has proposed a coalition of countries to provide up to €40 billion in military aid to Ukraine this year. The first step, currently under discussion among EU ambassadors, would see participating states supply 2 million shells worth €5 billion, with further commitments for 2025 potentially reaching €40 billion, depending on Ukraine’s needs.

Beyond defence and Ukraine, the summit will also cover a range of issues, including the EU’s economic competitiveness, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, migration policy, and external relations. Oceans and environmental policy are also on the agenda, though the focus will remain primarily on security and the EU’s ability to respond to growing geopolitical challenges given the urgency of the matter.

Thursday, 20 March – Bank of England committee expected to hold rates at 4.5% due to inflation uncertainty

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) meets on Thursday with markets widely expecting it to hold interest rates steady at 4.50%, following a 25-basis point cut in February. Two members of the MPC, in particular Catherine L. Mann and Megan Greene, called for a larger 50-basis points cut in last month’s meeting, revealing internal divisions over how quickly the Bank should proceed with its monetary policy loosening.

Since then, however, inflation projections have been revised upwards, with the Bank warning that rising commodity and energy prices could push headline inflation up to 3.7% later this year. The latest ONS data confirmed a rise in CPI inflation to 3.0% in January, up from 2.5% in December. Additionally, a BoE survey published last Friday showed a sharp increase in public inflation expectations, with the five-year inflation outlook rising to 3.6%, its highest level since 2019.

Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking to MPs earlier this month, downplayed fears of a self-reinforcing inflation surge, arguing that "the underlying path of price growth is still going downwards." However, he also acknowledged that weakening demand in the UK economy could be a growing factor, expressing expectations that inflation will ease over time. Meanwhile, Chief Economist Huw Pill, has cautioned against moving too quickly on rate cuts, saying he is not yet convinced inflationary pressures have been fully contained. A key risk facing the UK economy is the potential fallout from rising US trade tensions, following President Trump’s new tariffs on key trading partners.

Looking ahead, economists at UBS still anticipate three additional rate cuts in 2025, in May, August, and November, bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75% by year-end. However, with inflation proving stickier than expected and public expectations for price growth rising, markets will be closely watching Thursday’s policy statement for any signs of a more cautious or hawkish turn from the MPC.