Week Ahead (30 June)

Tuesday, 1 July – Denmark to take over rotating presidency of the Council of the EU 

On 1 July, Denmark will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU for the second half of 2025, taking over from Poland. According to its official announcement, the Danish programme revolves around two overarching priorities: securing Europe and building a competitive and green European economy. In practice, however, the focus is expected to fall heavily on competitiveness, simplification, and defence, reflecting the political momentum generated by the Draghi Report on EU competitiveness and the shifting global environment under Trump’s second term. 

Overall, Denmark takes over just as the EU enters a challenging phase. The EU is entering early negotiations on its next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), with the Commission’s proposal due on 16 July. Denmark will oversee the initial Council coordination but a final deal is not expected before 2027.  

On defence, Denmark is expected to lead the Council’s negotiations with the European Parliament over the €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and manage institutional tensions around the SAFE loan instrument. Copenhagen will also handle the early implementation of NATO’s 5% defence spending target at the EU level. 

Pharmaceutical reform will also enter trilogue talks under the Danish leadership after Poland secured the Council mandate. With its domestic pharma sector in focus, Denmark will aim to balance competitiveness with public health goals. On green policy, the presidency will continue the simplification agenda, from chemical rules to sustainable finance, while at the same time maintaining formal support for the Green Deal. 

Denmark will also preside over key negotiations on the EU’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) screening reform, part of the broader economic security strategy. Talks began earlier in June under Poland, with early disagreements over the scope of covered sectors and the Commission’s powers. Denmark will have to help bridge gaps between Parliament and Council, with the aim of concluding the file by the end of the year. 

Finally, Denmark will have to help manage EU unity on transatlantic trade if Trump reintroduces tariffs on 9 July. Even though the Commission leads negotiations, Denmark will be expected to coordinate political buy-in and avoid fragmentation among member states. 

Tuesday, 1 July – Eurozone flash inflation estimate for June 

Tomorrow, Eurostat will release its Eurozone flash inflation estimate for June with markets expecting headline inflation to remain flat at 3%.  The release follows the ECB’s widely expected rate cut on 5 June and will serve as an important signal for the Governing Council ahead of its next meeting on 23 July. 

In May, annual inflation in the euro area declined to 1.9%, down from 2.2% in April and 2.6% a year earlier. Inflation in the broader EU eased to 2.2% from 2.4% the previous month. Services made the largest contribution to euro area inflation (+1.47 percentage points), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.62 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.16 pp), while energy continued to exert downward pressure (-0.34 pp). 

Despite inflation falling back to target in May, uncertainty persists: Downside risks are increasingly offset by geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures. ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel warned in May that premature easing could backfire, citing medium-term inflation risks from Germany’s fiscal expansion, potential Trump-imposed tariffs, and broader supply chain fragmentation. While the worst-case scenario of an Iranian retaliation to the US and Israeli strike with a Strait of Hormuz blockade has been avoided for now, following a US-announced ceasefire, elevated tensions in global trade and energy markets will likely continue to cast a shadow over the inflation outlook.  

Against this backdrop, markets will be closely watching this week’s data to see how much room the Governing Council sees for further cuts over the summer. 

Tuesday, 1 July – EU deadline to rule on Zalando’s €1.1 billion acquisition of rival About You 

Also on Tuesday, the European Commission is expected to issue its Phase 1 decision on Zalando’s proposed €1.1 billion acquisition of fashion e-commerce rival About You. Announced in late 2024, the deal would allow the German online retail company to significantly strengthen its position in the European online fashion market and accelerate its ambition to become a pan-European e-commerce platform. 

The transaction includes a €6.50 per share offer, representing a 67% premium on About You’s closing price prior to the announcement and a 107% premium over its three-month average. About You’s management and key shareholders, who collectively control 73% of the company’s capital, have already committed to the deal. The Hamburg-based fashion platform currently serves over 12 million active customers and offers more than 4,000 brands, with a strong appeal among younger, style-led demographics. 

Although Zalando and About You operate primarily in parallel consumer segments, with Zalando being more brand-oriented and About You more trend-driven, the Commission is likely to assess the merger’s potential impact on platform concentration, brand access, and consumer choice in a market already dominated by a few large players. Regulatory concerns may focus on whether the deal could reduce visibility for smaller or independent brands, limit competition in digital marketing channels, or give Zalando undue leverage in supplier negotiations. 

To date, no formal remedies have been submitted, raising the possibility that the Commission could opt to open a more detailed Phase 2 investigation which would allow for further analysis of the merger’s effect on vertical integration, platform interoperability, and the broader fashion-tech ecosystem. 

Wednesday, 2 July – European Commission to unveil Quantum Strategy 

On Wednesday, the European Commission will unveil its long-awaited quantum technologies strategy, outlining how the EU intends to maintain relevance in a field increasingly shaped by global power competition and rapid commercialisation. Rather than following a regulatory path akin to the AI Act, the strategy centres on boosting Europe’s innovation capacity, industrial uptake, and infrastructure. To that end, emphasis is expected to be given to coordination, funding, and public sector demand rather than regulation. 

A draft of the strategy describes quantum technologies as reaching an “inflection point” moving from theoretical and lab-based research toward real-world applications. While noting that Europe holds a strong academic lead, accounting for a high share of global quantum talent and publications, it also acknowledges that it trails both the US and China in patents and private investment. Indicatively, the EU currently attracts just 5% of global quantum funding, compared to 50% for the US and 40% for China, raising the risk that European breakthroughs will be commercialised elsewhere.  

To address this growing gap, the Commission will outline support measures including a dedicated research framework, cross-border infrastructure investment, and skills development. Notably, it will encourage innovation-oriented public procurement, urging hospitals, government agencies, and infrastructure operators to act as launch customers for EU-developed technologies—sending a strong signal to markets and investors. 

The strategy will also pave the way for the European Quantum Act in 2026, which will focus on scaling production and deployment. Quantum computing, along with biotechnology, semiconductors and AI, has been included among the critical technologies for the EU’s economic security by the Commission’s October 2023 recommendation and is poised to benefit from state aid under the umbrella of Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI). The file falls under Executive Vice-President Henna Virkkunen, whose mandate prioritises tech sovereignty and reducing strategic dependencies. 

Thursday, 3 July – CJEU Advocate General to deliver opinion on Amazon book delivery fee case 

On Thursday, Advocate General Maciej Szpunar of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) is expected to deliver his legal opinion in a closely watched preliminary ruling request concerning Amazon’s challenge to France’s €3 minimum book delivery fee (Case C-366/24, Amazon EU v. French Government). The case centres on whether France’s national measure complies with EU law, particularly the Services Directive and internal market rules. 

The opinion follows a referral submitted by France’s Conseil d’État on 21 May 2024, in response to Amazon’s legal challenge of the measure. More specifically, the case centres on whether the fee, introduced by a French ministerial order in April 2023 and applied since October 2023, is compatible with EU law, specifically the Services Directive and the EU’s core internal market freedoms. The fee mandates a minimum delivery charge of €3 on online book purchases under €35, with the stated aim of protecting independent bookstores from unfair price competition by large e-commerce platforms. 

Amazon brought the case before the French administrative court, arguing that the measure is protectionist, discriminatory, and a clear violation of the EU’s Single Market rules. At the CJEU hearing in April 2025, Amazon’s legal representative described the fee as an “economic barrier” favouring physical retailers, including major chains such as FNAC and Carrefour, while undermining the freedom to provide cross-border services. The French government defended the regulation as a legitimate cultural policy intervention to support “bibliodiversity” and address competitive distortions in the book sector. It argued that the measure corrects structural imbalances and does not breach EU law. 

Although not legally binding, the Advocate General’s opinion this week is likely to shape the CJEU’s eventual ruling. The final ruling is expected in late 2025, most likely in Q4 2025 based on the usual 4–6 month window between AG opinions and judgements in complex competition cases.  The ruling is likely to clarify how far national governments can go in using economic tools to pursue cultural or social objectives within the EU Single Market.