Week Ahead (26 July)

Monday, 26 July – Ecofin to approve second batch of recovery plans

The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) will today approve the recovery and resilience plans of six more countries, namely those of Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Ireland, Lithuania and Slovakia.  Council approval will allow these member states to receive up to 13% of their allocated funds through pre-financing. 

The Council approved the first batch of 12 countries’ recovery plans on 13 July.  The Commission is currently assessing the plans of seven member states, including Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania and Sweden.  The Commission has yet to receive the plans of Bulgaria and the Netherlands.  Both countries are in a state of political flux after recent elections.

Friday, 30 July – EBA to publish results of latest stress testing of member state banks

On Friday the European Banking Authority will release results of its latest EU-wide stress testing of 50 banks in the EU, including 38 from countries under the jurisdiction of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), covering 70% of total banking assets in the EU.

The report’s adverse scenario will focus on prolonged Covid-19 conditions, causing ‘lower for longer’ interest rates, rising unemployment and a rapid fall of equity prices in the global financial market.  The purpose of the stress-test is to assess how the solvency of EU banks is impacted by an adverse macroeconomic scenario. 

Friday, 30 July - Eurostat flash estimate for inflation to be released 

Flash inflation data for July will be released on Friday.  The Eurostat release on inflation for June showed that the Eurozone inflation rate fell to 1.9%, down from the 2% reported in May 2021.  The rate stood at 0.3% during the same period last year.  In the European Union as a whole, inflation reached 2.2% in June, down by 0.1% when compared to May. 

Economists expect that inflation in the eurozone will peak at 2.5% towards the end of 2021 but will fade early in 2022.  Core inflation, which strips out items which are prone to fluctuation including energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, remained relatively low, at 0.9%, down from 1% in May.