Week Ahead (12 May)

Tuesday, 13 May – ECOFIN to discuss revised text for €150 SAFE loan programme with Lars Klingbeil attending for the first time   

Finance ministers will meet in Brussels tomorrow for negotiations on the €150 billion SAFE regulation and the implications of Germany’s new fiscal expansion plans under the Merz government. 

Although the latest draft confirms that implementing powers will rest with the Council, thereby satisfying member states’ calls for greater oversight, there remain significant divisions around third-country eligibility. A group of Member States led by Germany and the Netherlands support granting the maximum possible access to the UK, likening its status to that of Norway. However, France remains opposed, particularly to giving London privileged access to EU defence funds. While Poland, which currently holds the Presidency of the EU Council, had originally aimed for political agreement at the 13 May ECOFIN, finalisation of the regulation is now expected to be delayed, potentially until after the EU-UK summit on 19 May. 

This will also be the first ECOFIN appearance for Germany’s new Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil. Following the debt brake reform earlier this year, Germany’s new coalition government, led by Chancellor Merz, has pledged a €1 trillion investment programme, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund with €90 billion per year for three years and a sustained increase in defence spending, with a rise from €52 billion in 2024 to over €60 billion by 2025. 

However, experts and EU officials have warned in recent days that these plans may breach the EU’s revised Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). According to a recent Bruegel–HEC Paris analysis, Germany's investment ambitions are difficult to square with fiscal rules, even after reform, unless spending definitions or growth assumptions are revised. Berlin has already begun lobbying for changes including a broader EU definition of “defence” spending, linked to the National Escape Clause (NEC), to accommodate strategic outlays and a revision of the Commission’s potential growth methodology, which currently excludes public investment, limiting fiscal space. 

While tomorrow’s ECOFIN meeting may not produce a final decision on SAFE, it will test political will on defence integration, fiscal flexibility, and EU strategic autonomy. It may also signal how member states react to Germany’s push to expand spending within, or possibly beyond, the EU’s fiscal framework. 

Tuesday, 13 May – MEPs to vote on whether the RRF should be extended beyond August 2026 cutoff  

On Tuesday, the European Parliament is set to vote on a motion to extend the €650 billion Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the EU’s post-COVID stimulus package. With the August 2026 deadline for submitting payment requests approaching, member state divisions are surfacing along familiar geographic lines. Calls to extend the timeline are gaining traction in the South and likely to face strong resistance in the North. 

While the European Parliament has no formal say in whether the deadline can be extended, its non-binding vote aims to send a political signal to the European Commission, which is currently reviewing whether disbursements can legally continue into 2027, provided the requests are made before the August 2026 cutoff. So far, just under half the funds (€311 billion) have been disbursed, raising concerns that a significant share of money may remain untapped without further flexibility. At the heart of the debate is a draft report introduced in January by Romanian MEPs Victor Negrescu and Siegfried Muresan, proposing a 12-month grace period for projects that have reached at least 20% completion. 

In February, European Commission’s Deputy Director-General for Economic Affairs Declan Costello warned that “no extension will be granted” for the August 2026 deadline, urging member states to step up implementation. Adding further pressure, the European Court of Auditors last week published a strong critique of the RRF, criticising its weak focus on outcomes, poor cost transparency, and inadequate oversight. The auditors warned against using the RRF as a blueprint for future EU budgets, cautioning that it risks undermining fiscal responsibility and public trust. 

Tuesday, 13 May – EU member states to discuss progress of the European Chips Act amid growing calls for an updated version 

Also tomorrow, the Council’s Working Party on Competitiveness and Growth (Industry), comprised of EU member state delegates, will discuss the ongoing progress of the European Chips Act. Unveiled in February 2022, it aims to mobilise more than €43 billion in public and private investments to prevent semiconductor shortages and strengthen Europe’s chipmaking capacity. 

Nevertheless, in a report published last month, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) found that the Chips Act may not be sufficient to achieve the ambitious goal of a 20% global market share by 2030 (from the 9% share it had in 2022). Even though the report recognised reasonable progress in EU industrial policy, it also raised concerns about the feasibility of the target, especially given challenges like high energy prices and raw material shortages. To that end, it highlighted that the EU's current production capacity would need to be quadrupled to meet the 20% target, which is considered highly ambitious.   

This week’s discussions will largely revolve around the report’s findings, assessing the Act’s state of play and potential future steps. Importantly, it will come at a time of increasing industry and member state calls for a European Chips Act 2.0.   Already, nine EU countries, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Poland, formed in March a '’Semicon Coalition’' to push for a more realistic and targeted approach under Chips Act 2.0. 

Hence, the political momentum for a revised approach has increased, prompting the Commission to step up efforts. A formal review of the current Chips Act is due by September 2025. However, the Commission is already laying the groundwork for a new legislative proposal A Chips Act 2.0 will likely shift emphasis toward demand generation, long-term R&D investment, and strategic autonomy.  

Wednesday, 14 May – Vivendi and Lagardere to defend appeal the EU Commission’s merger probe over ‘’gun-jumping’’ before the General Court 

On Wednesday, French media groups Vivendi and Lagardere will appear (T-1119/23) before the EU’s General Court to challenge the European Commission’s decision to launch a formal antitrust investigation into their 2023 merger. The companies are appealing the initiation of the probe itself, arguing that the Commission overstepped its legal authority, particularly by demanding internal documents that, they claim, could compromise the confidentiality of journalistic sources. 

In June 2023, the Commission conditionally approved Vivendi’s acquisition of Lagardere, France’s largest publisher, after the company agreed to divest assets including Editis (its publishing division) and the celebrity magazine Gala, to address competition concerns related to titles like Journal du Dimanche and Paris Match. However, the following month the Commission launched a separate investigation to assess whether Vivendi breached EU merger rules, specifically the "standstill obligation" and "notification requirement", by engaging in premature integration or exerting control over Lagardere before receiving formal approval. This alleged "gun-jumping" is a serious infringement under EU law and may lead to fines of up to 10% of the company’s global turnover. 

In April 2024, the General Court provisionally suspended the Commission’s information demands, siding with Vivendi’s argument that certain requests could violate protections afforded to journalistic sources. The Court’s interim decision paused enforcement of those demands pending a full hearing which is now scheduled for 14 May. This week’s hearing will focus on whether the Commission had the legal basis to launch the probe and issue the contested document requests. The outcome could set a precedent for how EU competition authorities navigate sensitive issues involving media freedom, internal editorial material, and corporate oversight. 

Friday, 16 May – Intel to contest re-instated EU antitrust fine before General Court  

This week, the EU General Court will also hear Intel’s appeal against a €376 million fine re-imposed by the European Commission in 2023 for alleged abuse of dominance in the computer chip market. The case (T-1129/23) marks the latest phase in a legal battle that has spanned more than 15 years. 

In September 2023, the Commission imposed a €376.36 million fine on Intel, reinstating a penalty that had been overturned on appeal by the General Court last year. The fine is significantly lower than the initial €1.06 billion fine imposed on Intel in 2009, a record at that time. The fine concerns Intel’s sales tactics, which the Commission said aimed to marginalise rival AMD in the market for computer chips sold to manufacturers between 2002 and 2006.  Intel had challenged the original fine through the EU courts, leading to a decade-long legal battle. In 2022, the General Court ruled on the case for the second time, partially annulling the Commission’s decision primarily due to procedural errors made during the investigation process, promoting the EU regulator to launch a new probe.  

In December 2023, Intel filed an action seeking to annul the new fine. The company maintains that the Commission has failed to rectify the evidentiary gaps identified by the General Court and continues to infringe procedural and substantive rights. The outcome of the case could have implications for the Commission’s enforcement powers and the legal standards for proving abuse of dominance, reshaping how EU competition law evaluates exclusionary practices like loyalty rebates.