Week Ahead (20 October)

Tuesday, 21 October – Apple to challenge DMA decisions before the General Court 

Tomorrow, the General Court, the EU’s lower court, will hear two related cases brought by Apple (T-1079/23 and T-1080/23) against a set of European Commission decisions under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). 

In September 2023, the European Commission confirmed its initial list of six tech companies qualifying as ‘’gatekeepers’’ under the DMA, namely Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta, ByteDance (TikTok), and Microsoft. Companies with an annual turnover exceeding €7.5 billion, a market capitalisation of over €75 billion, and active monthly users in the EU totalling 45 million fall under these rules. The European Commission has the power to investigate the actions of gatekeepers and fine them up to 10% of their global turnover from the preceding year if they are found to be in breach of the DMA. 

Subsequently, on 16 November 2023, Apple filed two legal actions contesting the Commission’s decisions of 5 September 2023 designating the company as a “gatekeeper” under the DMA and opening a market investigation into iMessage. The designation covers Apple’s App Store, Safari browser, and iOS operating system, which the Commission considers “core platform services” under the Regulation (EU) 2022/1925. 

In sum, in Case T-1079/23, Apple disputes the Commission’s decision to launch a market investigation into iMessage, arguing that the service was wrongly classified as a number-independent interpersonal communications service under Articles 16 and 17(3) DMA. In Case T-1080/23, the company challenges its gatekeeper designation, claiming the Commission misapplied the DMA’s quantitative and qualitative criteria and failed to properly assess Apple’s ecosystem dynamics. The hearing comes six months after the Commission fined Apple €500 million in April this year for alleged anti-steering practices on the App Store, the first major penalty imposed under the DMA. 

Apple’s challenges form part of a broader legal pushback against the Commission’s first wave of DMA designations, with Meta (T-1078/23) and Bytedance (T-1077/23) pursuing parallel cases before the General Court. The latter’s appeal was dismissed last year by the General Court. 

Tuesday, 21 October – Commission to unveil 2026 Work Programme  

The European Commission is expected to present its Work Programme for 2026 this week in Strasbourg. A leaked draft of the 30-page document, titled “Europe’s Independence Moment,” offers an early look at the bloc’s legislative agenda for the year ahead, spanning agriculture, digital policy, taxation, healthcare, defence and public procurement. 

According to the draft, the Commission plans to table 32 new initiatives in 2026, alongside a series of repeals and withdrawals that have yet to be finalised. Key files include a 28th Regime for cross-border services, a Cloud and AI Development Act and a European Innovation Act in the Q1, followed by a Quantum Act in Q2, an update to the Audiovisual Media Services Directive in Q3, and a Digital Fairness Act in Q4. Other planned measures include a Single Market Roadmap to 2028, reforms to public procurement rules, and an omnibus deregulation package covering energy and taxation. 

Overall, the leaked document confirms the Commission’s broader pivot toward simplification and deregulation, part of its effort to enhance Europe’s competitiveness and ease the regulatory burden on businesses. The final version, to be adopted this week before presentation to the European Parliament by President Ursula von der Leyen, may still include a section listing legislative withdrawals, which is currently blank in the draft. 

Thursday, 21 October – Trade Commissioner Sefcovic to speak with Chinese Commerce Minister amid intensifying tensions over rare earths export controls 

Tomorrow, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is scheduled to speak with his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao, as tensions escalate over Beijing’s expansion of export controls on critical minerals. 

The discussion follows growing coordination among G7 partners, including the EU, Canada, and the UK, ahead of a ministerial meeting in Toronto later this month, where a joint response to China’s rare-earth restrictions is expected to be unveiled. The new curbs, justified by China on national security grounds, have reignited fears in Brussels and other G7 capitals over supply chain vulnerabilities. Indicatively, China currently accounts for around 60% of global rare-earth extraction and 90% of processing capacity. 

Sefcovic outreach follows a sharp acceleration in the EU’s de-risking agenda vis-à-vis Beijing. The Commission has recently proposed steel protection package, slashing duty-free quotas to 18.3 million tonnes a year and introducing a “melt-and-pour” traceability rule to block circumvention via third countries. The measures, backed strongly by France but met with caution in Berlin, mark a decisive shift from defensive monitoring to active industrial protection. 

Beijing is likely to respond: Following the EU’s EV tariffs in 2024, Chinese authorities launched anti-dumping probes into European brandy and pork, and  have signalled that they could extend similar scrutiny to medical devices or luxury goods. At the same time, the number of EU export licence approvals for rare-earth products has fallen sharply: only 19 of 141 European licence requests have been approved this year, clear evidence that Beijing is using supply chains as leverage.   

Thursday, 23 October – French Social Affairs committee to examine 2026 Social Security Financing Bill; suspension of pension reforms to be included   

The French National Assembly’s Social Affairs Committee will this Thursday begin examining the 2026 Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), which will incorporate the government’s commitment to suspend the controversial 2023 pension reform. Originally enacted to preserve France’s pay-as-you-go pension system amid demographic pressures, the reform gradually raised the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 and accelerated the required contribution period to 43 years by 2027. 

Last week, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu agreed to suspend the reform until the 2027 presidential election. This was a key Socialist Party demand and the price he had to pay to ensure that they would not back the two no-confidence motions that were put to a vote last Thursday. The move allows him to retain Socialist support for the 2026 budget but comes at a political and fiscal cost. According to figures presented by Lecornu last Tuesday, the suspension is expected to add roughly €400 million to spending in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027. 

This major concession buys Lecornu some breathing space but it is still not fully guaranteed whether it will be enough to secure passage of the budget before year-end. Socialist deputies have already warned they will scrutinise the budget “line by line” before committing. Even with Socialist backing, the government’s majority remains fragile, with the Republicans (LR) and the centrist LIOT still divided. The debate over the Social Security Financing Bill which kicks off on Thursday will intensify in the coming weeks, providing us with a clearer indication whether there will be sufficient support for next year’s budget. 

Thursday, 23 October – European leaders to hold summit in Brussels; focus on defence readiness, Ukraine and competitiveness 

EU leaders will reconvene in Brussels this week for a European Council meeting centred on Europe’s defence preparedness, continued support for Ukraine, and measures to strengthen the bloc’s economic competitiveness. The summit follows the informal gathering in Copenhagen earlier this month, where leaders agreed to return to both defence and Ukraine in more detail on 23 October. 

Commission President von der Leyen will formally present the European Defence Readiness Roadmap, which was unveiled last Thursday and sets out the EU’s ambition to “credibly deter its adversaries and respond to any aggression by 2030.” The plan describes Russia as a “persistent threat to European security for the foreseeable future” and outlines four flagship projects, the European Drone Defence Initiative, Eastern Flank Watch, European Air Shield, and European Space Shield, each to be led by a member state with Commission support. The initiative aims to close capability gaps through joint procurement and coordination, without creating new operational command structures. The roadmap will serve as a first step toward the next phase of the EU’s security architecture, complementing ongoing efforts such as the SAFE defence investment programme and the proposed European Defence Mechanism (EDM). 

Support for Ukraine will again dominate the agenda, with leaders set to reaffirm their commitment to ensuring Kyiv has the “budgetary and military means to continue to exercise its inherent right of self-defence and counter Russia’s aggression.” The Council will also revisit the stalled 19th sanctions package, which expands EU restrictions beyond Russia to include third-country enablers of sanctions evasion, including several banks, oil traders, and a cryptocurrency exchange. 

However, divisions remain. Hungary continues to resist new sanctions, and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico last week threatened to block joint conclusions unless they include concrete measures to address “the crisis in the automotive industry and high energy prices that are making the European economy completely uncompetitive.” Since summit conclusions require unanimity, his stance could force leaders to issue a statement on behalf of 26 countries, as has happened in previous cases involving Hungary. In an effort to address broader economic concerns, the draft conclusions also call for “a major programme of slashing red tape” across key sectors, urging for more simplification packages in sectors such ‘’automotive, military mobility, digital, environment, and food safety.” 

Friday, 24 October – Ireland to hold presidential elections in two-candidate race 

On Friday, Ireland will hold its presidential election on 24 October to choose a successor to Michael D. Higgins, who has completed two seven-year terms and is constitutionally barred from seeking a third. The new head of state will be sworn in before Higgins’s term ends on 11 November. 

The race features just two candidates, Catherine Connolly, a left wing independent and former Speaker of the Dail Eireann, and Heather Humphreys, Fine Gael’s nominee and outgoing Minister for Social Protection. The latest opinion poll, conducted by the Irish Times and Ipsos B&A revealed a comfortable lead of 38% for Connolly with Humphreys trailing behind with 20%. 

Connolly is backed by a broad left-wing alliance including Labour, Social Democrats, People Before Profit, and Sinn Fein, whose leader Mary Lou McDonald praised her as a candidate “not representing Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.” Her campaign focuses on social justice, Irish neutrality, Gaza, and cultural inclusion. Humphreys, by contrast, has centred her message on stability, pro-European values, and criticism of Connolly’s foreign policy positions. Former Fianna Fail candidate Jim Gavin withdrew earlier this month following a financial controversy, but his name will remain on the ballot due to procedural deadlines. This means that his vote share could still influence the final outcome.  

The presidency is largely ceremonial but carries significant symbolic weight in shaping Ireland’s public life and international image.