Week Ahead (6 October)

W/C Monday, 6 October – Lecornu resigns hours after forming cabinet; France plunged into political uncertainty  

France has once again plunged into political turmoil after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday morning, less than 24 hours after unveiling his long-delayed cabinet. The shock move came just 27 days after his appointment, making Lecornu the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history and leaving President Emmanuel Macron facing renewed questions over his ability to maintain stability amid deep parliamentary fragmentation. 

Lecornu’s resignation capped a chaotic weekend in Paris. On Sunday evening, he presented a largely continuity cabinet that retained many figures from the outgoing administration, including Jean-Noel Barrot (Foreign Affairs), Gerald Darmanin (Justice), and Bruno Retailleau (Interior). In a surprise twist, former economy minister Bruno Le Maire returned as armed forces minister, while Roland Lescure took over the finance portfolio as France enters delicate budget negotiations. 

However, cracks emerged almost immediately. Conservative allies from Les Republicains (LR), led by Retailleau, signalled they would withdraw support over disagreements on migration and fiscal policy, while the Socialists continued to demand redistributive measures such as the proposed “Zucman tax” on ultra-wealthy households. The resulting breakdown in coalition talks effectively doomed Lecornu’s government before it began. 

Last Friday, Lecornu pledged a “change in method” and ruled out invoking Article 49.3 to force through the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote, a key departure from his predecessors. However, his attempt to build consensus around an austerity plan met resistance from different sides. 

A successor could be named by Macron in the coming days. With the 2026 Budget due for adoption by the end of the year, and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Jean-Luc Melenchon’s La France Insoumise repeatedly calling for snap elections or even Macron’s resignation, France enters another week of political uncertainty. 

W/C Monday, 6 October – Von der Leyen faces double no-confidence votes in the European Parliament 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will again take the floor in the European Parliament this week to defend her record, as lawmakers debate two simultaneous motions of censure tabled by the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) and The Left. The debate will be held jointly today at 5 pm CET, with separate votes scheduled for Thursday at noon. 

While neither motion is expected to succeed since approval requires a two-thirds majority of all MEPs, the two challenges highlight the mounting polarisation that has characterised von der Leyen’s second mandate. Criticism spans both extremes of the political spectrum, uniting opponents around discontent with the EU–US trade deal and the EU–Mercosur agreement, both of which are accused of undermining European farmers and exporters. 

The Patriots for Europe, led by Jordan Bardella, will centre their attack on trade policy, migration, and green legislation, while The Left, fronted by Manon Aubry, will focus on the Commission’s perceived inaction on Gaza and the climate crisis. Von der Leyen is expected to respond personally, joined in the hemicycle by her entire College of Commissioners, a show of unity meant to project institutional strength. 

Despite the noise, von der Leyen is likely to survive comfortably, backed by the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe, and most of the Greens. However, the recurring no-confidence attempts, the second in under three months, underline growing dissent over trade, regulation, and transparency. Even if the votes fail, they reinforce the image of a Commission president facing increasingly vocal opposition both from outside and within her own ranks. 

W/C Monday, 6 October – Babis opens coalition talks after landslide win in Czech elections 

Former Prime Minister, Andrej Babis scored a landslide victory in this weekend’s Czech parliamentary elections, returning to the political forefront after four years in opposition. His populist ANO 2011 movement secured nearly 35 % of the vote and 80 of the 200 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, well ahead of any rival, confirming months of polling that predicted a landslide. 

The result represents a heavy defeat for the governing Spolu (“Together”) coalition led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, which took just 23 %, while its partners STAN and the Pirate Party won 11 % and 9 % respectively. All three parties reiterated during the campaign that they would not join a government led by Babiš, effectively ruling out a broad centrist alliance. Fiala’s Civic Democrats (ODS) are now bracing for a leadership shake-up, with the party congress moved forward to January. That leaves ANO with two potential partners: Tomio Okamura’s far-right, pro-Russian SPD, which underperformed with 15 MPs, and the new Motorists for Themselves party, an anti-Green Deal and ultra-conservative movement that exceeded expectations with 13 MPs. Together, these three parties could command a 108-seat majority, though such an arrangement would likely be unstable and controversial within the EU and NATO. 

Despite his populist and Eurosceptic rhetoric, Babis sought to reassure international partners following his win. In his Saturday night victory speech, he described the result as a “historic success” and insisted that ANO’s Western orientation remains clear and non-negotiable, dismissing concerns that Prague could drift away from the EU or NATO. 

Still, coalition negotiations are expected to be protracted and difficult.  President Petr Pavel, a pro-Western former NATO general, began consultations with party leaders on Sunday and Monday but has not yet tasked Babis with forming a government. Pavel has repeatedly stated that he will not appoint ministers advocating withdrawal from the EU or NATO, underscoring his intention to preserve the country’s Euro-Atlantic alignment amid growing regional divisions. A hardline Eurosceptic coalition led by Babis would have implications well beyond Prague. It could align the Czech Republic more closely with Hungary and Slovakia in obstructing EU support for Ukraine and enlargement, deepening divisions in the Council at a critical moment. 

Tuesday, 7 October – EU to adopt Apply AI Strategy and unveil strategy on AI in Science  

Tomorrow, the European Commission is expected to adopt its Apply AI strategy, alongside the Communication on AI in Science. The initiative is intended to accelerate the integration of AI technologies across strategic sectors and reinforce the EU’s technological sovereignty. It follows a public consultation launched in April and closed in June, which gathered input from industry, academia, public authorities and civil society on how to scale up adoption. 

Building on the AI Continent Action Plan and initiatives such as AI Factories and GenAI4EU, the strategy will seek to boost productivity and competitiveness by focusing on strategic verticals, transforming public services and reducing Europe’s reliance on foreign technologies. The Commission is expected to back its ambitions with a mix of funding programmes, AI factories and gigafactories, data spaces, testing facilities and skills academies, organised within sector-specific frameworks with clear deliverables over the next three to five years.  

Looking ahead, formal call for the establishment of AI gigafactories, designed to train very large models, is also expected before the end of 2025. The adoption of the strategy follows the April launch of the AI Continent Action Plan, which marked a shift in Brussels’ focus from regulation to competitiveness and scale-up. At the time, Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen emphasised the need to simplify reporting obligations and create a business environment that is “faster and simpler than the EU is right now.” Financially, the plan is backed by the InvestAI initiative, aiming to mobilise €200 billion in AI-related investment, including €20 billion for gigafactories. 

The rollout comes against the backdrop of Mario Draghi’s September 2024 report on European competitiveness, which warned that the EU is falling behind global rivals in advanced technologies. Indicatively, the report stated that “in 2023, an estimated $8 billion was invested in AI in the EU, compared to $68 billion in the US and $15 billion in China’’, highlighting the scale of the challenge facing Brussels as it prepares to launch Raise and the Apply AI strategy later this year. 

Wednesday, 8 October – European Commission to unveil new steel safeguards, proposing a cut of import quotas and hike tariffs to 50% 

On Wednesday, the European Commission will present a new package of measures for the steel sector, with Executive Vice-President Stephane Sejourne confirming last week that import quotas for foreign steel will be reduced by almost 50% and tariffs above those levels raised to 50%, in line with US and Canadian practice. The bloc’s current safeguard regime is due to expire in June 2026, and while Brussels had already tightened quotas by 15% from 1 April, the new text marks a far more aggressive stance. It is framed as part of a coordinated effort with Washington to counter subsidised Chinese overcapacity, which continues to distort global markets. 

The proposal could set up a clash with powerful industrial users in Germany, particularly the automotive sector. Last month, Hildegard Muller of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) urged Berlin to oppose any extension of safeguard measures. For their part, steelmakers are conducting their own lobbying campaign, with ThyssenKrupp Steel’s CEO Dennis Grimm arguing that the impact on consumers is minimal, amounting to around €50 per new car and €1 per washing machine. The German government has so far remained cautious, weighing the interests of both sides. 

The new legislation will require the support of both the Council and European Parliament, with a deadline of June 2026 for the process to be completed. Publication of the proposal this week will also serve as the EU’s opening move in renewed talks with Washington on a “metals alliance,” designed to protect both economies from Chinese oversupply. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Asia last month to prepare the ground.