Week Ahead (22 September)

W/C Monday, 22 September – Prime Minister Lecornu to continue balancing act following nationwide strikes, as ‘’Zucman tax’’ gains traction 

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu enters his second week in office facing mounting pressure from both unions and parliament after yesterday's nationwide strikes drew more than half a million demonstrators. In response, Lecornu has already scrapped Francois Bayrou’s plan to abolish two public holidays, a move seen as an early concession to public anger. He also announced an end to lifetime perks for former prime ministers, part of a broader effort to reset relations with voters across the political spectrum. 

Once again, the focus of Lecornu’s discussions with political stakeholders this week will be the 2026 budget.  Socialists are making their support contingent on introducing the so-called “Zucman tax,” a 2% levy on fortunes above €100 million. Backed by 86% of voters in recent polls, the measure would raise an estimated €20 billion annually but is strongly opposed by Republicans (LR) and business groups, including the influential Medef union, who have warned of capital flight and damage to investment. Nevertheless, within LR, some figures last week hinted at some greater flexibility, suggesting deficit-reduction targets of €35–36 billion versus Bayrou’s original €44 billion plan. 

Last week it was confirmed that the draft budget for 2026 is due to be sent to lawmakers by 7 October. Therefore, Lecornu is expected to intensify talks with unions and political leaders this week, seeking a fragile balance between Socialist demands for redistribution and Republican insistence on fiscal discipline. 

W/C Monday, 22 September – Swedish defence minister visits Berlin to discuss potential FCAS partnership as tensions over France’s role escalate 

This week, Swedish Defence Minister Pal Jonson will be in Berlin for talks with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius, with the troubled €100 billion Future Combat Air System (FCAS) set to feature prominently. Berlin’s frustration with Paris has intensified following meetings with Airbus Defence & Space earlier this month, with officials accusing Dassault of seeking to dominate the Next-Generation Fighter (NGF) subproject. 

Germany is now actively exploring fallback scenarios should cooperation with France collapse. Options under review include continuing the programme bilaterally with Spain, whose industrial partner Indra remains strongly supportive; opening the door to Sweden, where Saab’s Gripen experience in avionics and lightweight design could add significant value; or in a more ambitious move, seeking UK involvement via BAE Systems, even though overlap with the UK-led GCAP programme risks conflicts of interest. 

The German line remains that the original workshare agreement, equal distribution between France, Germany and Spain, must be respected. Yet Paris has so far shown little willingness to compromise, with Dassault pushing for up to 80% of the NGF work. The recent promotion of Sebastien Lecornu, until now France’s armed forces minister directly involved in FCAS negotiations, to Prime Minister could prove decisive if he presses Dassault to soften its stance. 

Reacting to the ongoing speculation over FCAS, the French Ministry of Armed Forces issued a statement over the weekend insisting on its commitment to the project, stating that “it is fully committed to working with its German and Spanish counterparts to reach a mutually acceptable solution by the end of the year.”  

Looking ahead, a trilateral meeting of defence ministers from France, Germany and Spain in October will be crucial. Berlin has signalled it wants clarity before the end of the year on whether FCAS can advance to Phase 2 and the demonstrator stage or whether Germany will step up its pursuit of alternative partners. Ultimately, the Bundestag will have the final say on whether the programme goes ahead. 

W/C Monday, 22 September – European Commission likely to announce decision on Boeing’s $4.7 billion acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems 

This week, the European Commission is likely to issue its decision on Boeing’s proposed $4.7 billion acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, the world’s largest standalone aerostructures manufacturer. Boeing, which spun off Spirit nearly two decades ago, agreed in July 2024 to buy back its former subsidiary in a deal that also involves Airbus taking over Spirit’s loss-making Europe-focused activities. The UK Competition and Markets Authority cleared the deal last month, opting not to launch an in-depth investigation. 

The deal is seen by Boeing as central to tightening oversight of its supply chain after years of safety and production setbacks. Spirit is also a major supplier to Airbus, generating nearly 20% of its revenues from the European planemaker in 2023. To address this, Airbus has reached a parallel agreement to acquire Spirit facilities in North Carolina, Kansas, France, Northern Ireland and Morocco for a symbolic €1, with Spirit paying it $559 million in compensation. 

For Europe, the implications go beyond competition dynamics. Boeing hopes the integration will improve production reliability and accelerate deliveries to European airlines. The transaction is provisionally scheduled for a decision by 30 September. However, a decision is likely to take place as early as this week. 

Wednesday, 24 September – General Court to rule on Sanofi legal challenge against the European Commission 

On Wednesday, the General Court will deliver its ruling in Case T-483/22 Sanofi v European Commission. The case concerns the Commission’s June 2022 decision that avalglucosidase alfa (Nexviadyme), a treatment developed by Sanofi/Genzyme for Pompe disease, does not qualify as a “new active substance” and should not receive orphan medicinal product designation. 

Sanofi is challenging the decision on several grounds, arguing that the Commission committed manifest errors of assessment, breached EU pharmaceutical rules on new active substances and orphan designations, and failed to provide adequate reasoning. The company also invokes the principle of good administration under the EU Charter. 

The judgement will be closely watched as it could set an important precedent for how strictly the Commission applies criteria for new active substances and orphan designations. A ruling in Genzyme’s favour would secure valuable regulatory exclusivities for Nexviadyme and could make it easier for other companies to obtain similar designations. If the Commission prevails, it will reinforce the high bar set for such classifications, with implications for future drug development strategies in the EU.