Week Ahead (24 March)

W/C Monday, 24 March – New Bundestag convenes in Germany; CDU’s Merz turns to coalition talks with SPD after historic debt brake reform

Germany’s newly elected Bundestag will convene for the first time this week, following the centre-right CDU/CSU’s victory in February’s snap elections. With the outgoing parliament now dissolved, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, enters the final phase of forming a new government, beginning formal coalition talks with the centre-left SPD in the coming days.

This follows the successful passage of a historic €1 trillion fiscal package, which cleared its final hurdle on Friday with the Bundesrat’s approval. The reforms, backed last Tuesday by a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, amend Germany’s constitution to relax the debt brake and enable long-term defence and infrastructure investment. The plan includes a 12-year, €500 billion infrastructure fund, with €100 billion earmarked for green projects following a last-minute breakthrough with the Greens. The finalisation of the package marks a political win for Merz, who convened emergency sessions of the outgoing parliament to secure its adoption ahead of this week’s transition.

Therefore, attention now turns to coalition negotiations. The February elections saw the CDU/CSU win 30.1% of the vote, positioning Merz to form a two-party coalition with the SPD (16.5%), as the liberal FDP and the populist-left BSW failed to enter parliament. The Greens (12.3%) suffered losses, and the AfD made historic gains with 20.7% but remains politically isolated. The fact that smaller parties, in particular the liberal FDP and the left-wing BSW failed to meet the 5% threshold to enter the parliament, means Merz can avoid a three-party coalition and instead pursue a more stable centre-right-centre-left alliance.

Talks between CDU/CSU and SPD are expected to centre on fiscal discipline, defence priorities, and growth-oriented economic policy. Earlier this month, Merz warned that “very difficult conversations” lie ahead on budget reform and spending cuts, signalling that while the debt brake reform has passed, broader fiscal restructuring will define the coalition’s agenda. His aim is to have a government in place by mid-April.

W/C Monday, 24 March – France to host another Ukraine Summit in Paris; US-led ceasefire talks to continue in Saudi Arabia

Following last week’s European Council, which focused heavily on the recently-published EU’s Defence White Paper and ongoing military support for Ukraine, attention is now turning to two key international meetings this week that could shape the future of Western support and a potential ceasefire with Russia.

On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will host a summit in Paris with leaders from the so-called “coalition of the willing” joined by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The meeting will bring together a wider circle of European and NATO leaders, building on Macron’s earlier gatherings in February and March. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed that countries that participated in last week’s London video summit are also expected to attend. In Macron’s words, the Paris meeting will focus on “finalising short-term support for the Ukrainian army, advancing a sustainable defence model for Ukraine, and exploring European-led security guarantees.” The meeting will reflect growing support for a “coalition of the willing”, a flexible alliance of EU Member States, potentially joined by partners such as Canada and Turkey, to deliver long-term military assistance to Ukraine and fill emerging strategic gaps, particularly as US engagement appears to shift under President Trump.  Over the weekend, Macron said ahead of the Paris Ukraine Summit that work on Europe's security guarantees would be finalised ''in the next few days''. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously demanded the cessation of all arms supplies to Ukraine as a precondition for peace.

Meanwhile, yesterday, ceasefire negotiations led by the US once again kicked off in Riyadh, where American officials are meeting separately with delegations from Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv’s delegation, which includes senior defence and energy officials, is expected to present a list of energy infrastructure sites that should be excluded from Russian strikes under a proposed partial ceasefire discussed between Trump and President Putin last week.

Thursday, 27 March – CJEU’s General Advocate to issue legal opinion on WhatsApp’s challenge against EDPB powers

On Thursday, Advocate General Priit Pikamae of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will deliver his legal opinion in a high-profile case concerning the scope of the European Data Protection Board’s (EDPB) authority in cross-border enforcement of EU privacy rules (Case C-97/23 P, WhatsApp Ireland v. European Data Protection Board).

The case stems from a 2021 decision by Ireland’s Data Protection Commission (DPC), which fined WhatsApp €225 million over alleged GDPR breaches. The originally foreseen fine was significantly increased following binding input from the EDPB under the EU’s so-called "one-stop shop" mechanism. WhatsApp has argued that it should have had the right to challenge the EDPB’s decision directly, rather than only the DPC’s final ruling. Overall, it contested the EDPB’s involvement, arguing that the Board’s binding decision had direct legal consequences for the company. However, the General Court rejected that challenge in 2022, ruling that the EDPB’s decision was addressed to the Irish DPC, not WhatsApp directly, and that any legal remedy must instead be pursued at the national level. The court cited the EU’s complementary system of judicial remedies and concluded that WhatsApp had no standing (‘’locus standi’’) before the European courts.

Now before the CJEU, WhatsApp argues that the EDPB’s binding intervention left no discretion to the Irish regulator and should therefore be open to direct judicial review. In its submission, the company’s legal counsel described the current legal architecture as “flawed and unworkable,” warning that it could undermine the rights of companies targeted in composite enforcement actions.

Although not legally binding, the Advocate General’s opinion is likely to shape the CJEU’s eventual ruling, expected later this year or in early 2025, as the Court usually tends to follow their recommendations. If the Court ultimately sides with WhatsApp, it could redefine the standing rules for challenging EDPB decisions and strengthen judicial oversight of EU-level data protection enforcement.

Friday, 28 March – European Commission could conclude its inaugural DMA probes; Apple and Meta set to face fines

In the next days, the European Commission could conclude the final rulings of its inaugural investigations into Apple and Meta under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) with decisions potentially coming as early as Friday. These inaugural cases, launched in March 2024, focus on whether the designated gatekeepers have violated key DMA obligations on data sharing, platform interoperability, and access to digital services for competitors, with a deadline of 12-months for conclusion. However, the deadline this week is considered a soft one. While the Commission has scheduled a meeting of its Digital Advisory Committee for Friday, a necessary procedural step in issuing a non-compliance decision, the final rulings could still take a few more days, or even weeks, to be formally published.

More specifically, Apple is being investigated for allegedly restricting interoperability within its App Store, while Meta faces scrutiny over its “pay or OK” consent model for targeted advertising. The final decisions are expected to include financial penalties, though reportedly at a modest level. According to a Reuters report earlier this month, Apple and Meta are likely to face relatively limited fines for their suspected DMA violations, despite the law allowing sanctions of up to 10% of global annual turnover (and up to 20% for repeat infringements).

These developments follow a busy enforcement week under the DMA. Last Wednesday, the Commission issued a formal compliance order to Apple over separate iOS-related obligations and published preliminary non-compliance findings against Google. The Apple order requires the company to improve interoperability with third-party devices (e.g. smartwatches and headphones) and reform its developer communications. While the order does not trigger an immediate fine, failure to comply could lead to financial penalties down the line. In contrast, the case against Google remains at the preliminary stage. Regulators raised concerns about continued self-preferencing in Google Search and restrictive terms that prevent app developers from steering users toward better deals outside of the Play Store. Google is under review for its practices in digital advertising and search, particularly whether it continues to favour its own services and restrict rivals’ visibility and market access. Google has until later this year to respond before any formal ruling is made.

Notably, these rulings come amid heightened tensions between Brussels and Washington over EU tech regulation. Last month, President Donald Trump issued a memo threatening retaliatory tariffs on countries that “inhibit the growth” of US tech firms, calling EU regulations a form of “overseas extortion.” In an effort to de-escalate, EU Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera and Tech Chief Henna Virkkunen wrote to US lawmakers, specifically House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, reiterating that the DMA “does not target US companies.”  

The upcoming rulings will be closely watched as a litmus test for how aggressively Brussels will enforce the DMA in practice. A softer approach may ease transatlantic frictions but risks weakening the law’s credibility. Conversely, robust penalties could reinforce the EU’s commitment to reining in Big Tech, but may further escalate the ongoing trade disputes with Washington.