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Monday, 25 November – European Commission to host workshop on Booking.com’s compliance with the DMA rules
This morning, the European Commission is hosting a workshop on Booking.com’s compliance with the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA). Earlier this month, Booking.com, the only European company listed as a gatekeeper, published a report detailing its compliance measures as required by the 13 November deadline. The report outlined Booking’s plans to address concerns about monopolistic practices, previously voiced by hotels and other stakeholders who have called for stricter oversight of Booking’s practices. Notably, the company pledged to remove “best-price” parity clauses that previously prevented hotels from offering lower rates on other platforms or directly to consumers. Additionally, Booking introduced a new widget to allow customers to transfer their data to rival services, enhancing data portability and reducing restrictions on data-sharing with business partners. The company also announced new controls over data flows within its operations to better comply with the DMA’s standards.
Hence, the aim of today’s workshop is to gather industry feedback on the proposed changes while reviewing the platform’s compliance with the DMA. Similar workshops on Amazon, Alphabet, ByteDance (TikTok), Meta, and Microsoft took place in March, shortly after the rules entered into force.
The DMA’s purpose is to regulate the digital market by preventing big tech companies, referred to as ‘’gatekeepers’’ from abusing their dominant market positions, and opening competition to smaller competitors. To that end, it introduces new responsibilities for tech companies, including sharing data, linking to competitors, and ensuring interoperability with rival apps. Companies with an annual turnover exceeding €7.5 billion, a market capitalisation of over €75 billion, and active monthly users in the EU totalling 45 million fall under these rules. Per our previous reports, the Commission can impose fines of up to 10% of a company’s global revenue for non-compliance and has active investigations underway into Apple, Google, and Meta, with conclusions expected within 12 months from their launch (March 2024).
Tuesday, 26 November – Party leader’s debate takes on added significance after opinion poll suggests dramatic shift in support for Fine Gael ahead of general election on Friday 29 November
On Friday, Ireland’s general election will take place. An opinion poll published on Saturday and another published this morning, suggests support for Fine Gael is declining sharply in the final days of the campaign. This morning’s poll by Ipsos B&A on behalf of the Irish Times will be particularly worrying for Fine Gael as it shows a 6% drop in support for the party since the last Ipsos B&A survey published on 13 November – down from 25% to 19%.
It is worth noting that in the 2020 general election, the final campaign poll by Ipsos B&A was within one point of the election result for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Fein, Labour and the Greens.
It is difficult to pinpoint a single factor behind the collapse in support for Fine Gael. It has been a lacklustre campaign with minor controversies, beginning with Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, speaking at a Fine Gael event, criticising the amount of teachers in Dail Eireann. Fine Gael’s Louth candidate, Senator John McGahon, also faced scrutiny for a €39,000 civil charge related to an assault case. While cleared in the criminal trial, this incident may have tarnished Fine Gael’s reputation as the “law and order” party, and other parties, including Fianna Fáil, appear to have capitalised somewhat on it.
Simon Harris also had a confrontation with a healthcare worker for which he subsequently apologised – though this happened on Friday so was unlikely to have been reflected in the most recent poll. If there is a silver lining for Fine Gael, it is that no single party has picked up the momentum it appears to have lost. Fianna Fáil are up only two points to 20% with Sinn Fein up only one point to 19%. Undecided voters, who are excluded from the above figures, are at 19% - up by three points which suggests that many of those previously intending to support Fine Gael are now undecided.
As a result, Tuesday night’s party leaders’ debate, takes on even more significance for Simon Harris; a good performance and there is every chance he will be able to recover some momentum and undecided voters. A poor performance on other hand and support for Fine Gael is likely to slide further.
Tuesday, 26 November – Italian parliament to vote on proposed amendment capping the fees on meal vouchers; likely to trigger legal response by issuers
Tomorrow, the Italian parliament’s plenary session will hold its vote on the ‘’Annual Law for Competition’’, including a proposed amendment which places a cap of 5% on the commissions applied to meal vouchers by issuing companies.
If enacted, the new bill will immediately apply to merchants without pre-existing agreements with issuers and extend to existing contracts starting from 1 September 2025. Voucher issuers will also be allowed to withdraw from existing agreements without penalties under the new rules.
The proposed measure has ignited debate between retailers and voucher providers. Retail associations, such as Confesercenti, have hailed the measure as a victory for businesses, arguing that the cap addresses the burdensome fees of up to 20% currently imposed by voucher providers. On the contrary, issuers like Edenred have strongly opposed the amendment, claiming it undermines the principle of pricing freedom enshrined in Italian and European law. Edenred has already expressed readiness to challenge the legislation in court should it pass.
The amendment has already secured approval from the Environment and Productive Activities Committees last week and has garnered significant support within Parliament, particularly among members of Fratelli d’Italia and Forza Italia. Therefore, its final approval is widely expected this week. Nevertheless, it is also likely that Edenred and other issuers will contest the measure with the Italian competition authority and in Italian administrative courts.
Tuesday, 26 November – European Commission to rule on BBVA’s hostile takeover of rival bank Sabadell under the FSR
BBVA’s hostile takeover bid for Sabadell faces a crucial test this week as the European Commission is set to decide whether the deal violates EU regulations on foreign subsidies. The Commission is investigating whether the proposed acquisition breaches new rules aimed at preventing market distortions caused by financial support from non-EU countries.
The deal, notified to the Commission on 13 October, has been under preliminary examination. According to the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) of the EU which came into effect in in July 2023, companies must notify the Commission if they have significant EU market presence—generating at least €500 million in annual turnover—and have received financial contributions exceeding €50 million from foreign governments over the last three years. The legislation aims to address the regulatory disparities between aid granted by EU states and subsidies granted by non-EU governments. The FSR applies to all economic activities in the EU, such as mergers & acquisitions, public procurement tenders and all other market situations. If a firm breaches these new rules, the EU can force companies to divest, impose fines or prevent takeovers of businesses within the bloc.
The takeover bid, announced in April and turning hostile in May, has faced scrutiny from multiple fronts. While the European Central Bank approved the deal on 5 September, the Spanish government remains a key opponent, citing concerns about potential harm to the domestic financial system, including risks to jobs and customer protections. Under Spanish law, the government cannot block the takeover bid outright but retains the final say on approving a full merger between the banks. Additional authorisations are required from Spain’s stock market supervisor and its antitrust regulator, CNMC.
BBVA has set a minimum approval threshold of 50.01% of Sabadell’s shares for the acquisition to proceed, with a timeline estimating shareholder approval within six to eight months. If successful, the merger would create a financial giant with over €1 trillion in total assets and an expanded international footprint. The bid has already received approvals in key markets where Sabadell operates, including the UK, the US, France, Portugal, and Morocco.
The Commission must decide by 26 November whether to launch an in-depth investigation into the deal. If no investigation is opened, BBVA may proceed with its bid for Sabadell under the principle of positive administrative silence. However, if Brussels opts to investigate further, the process could be delayed or potentially blocked until the matter is resolved. This decision marks one of the first high-profile tests of the new foreign subsidies framework. It could set a precedent for how Brussels approaches acquisitions involving financial contributions from non-EU countries. On 24 September, Dubai-based E&’s acquisition of PPF’s telecom assets across several European countries, a deal valued at €2.2 billion, became the first to be conditionally cleared under the FSR.
Wednesday, 27 November – New European Commission to be voted by the European Parliament’s plenary
On Wednesday, the European Parliament’s plenary is poised to hold a vote on the new European Commission in Strasbourg. Last Wednesday, a breakthrough was reached in the negotiations among the parliamentary groups, following a stalemate earlier in November over the confirmation of six Executive Vice President nominees and Hungary’s commissioner-designate Oliver Varhelyi.
The delays were largely caused by political manoeuvring. More specifically, approval for Terasa Ribera’s candidacy (Spain, S&D), Commissioner-designate for EU Competition and Climate Policy, was withheld by the European People’s Party (EPP), which insisted she must first answer questions in the Spanish Parliament regarding her handling of recent floods in Valencia in her capacity as the country’s Minister for ecology. The Socialists also withheld approval for Italy’s Raffaele Fitto, vice-President Commissioner designate for Cohesion Policy, because of his affiliation with the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group.
The breakthrough came after intense negotiations among the major political groups of the so-called pro-EU ‘’centrist’’ coalition, the European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe. This marks the first time in two decades that no Commissioner candidate was rejected by Parliament, signalling a significant political victory for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her allies.
Nevertheless, this “coalition agreement” by S&D and Renew to secure centrist commitments from the EPP appears largely symbolic, offering no binding guarantees. This leaves the centre-right EPP free to align with groups both from its left (S&D, Renew, the Greens) and right wing (ECR, Patriots for Europe) to shape majorities on ad-hoc basis in the future.
Hence, Wednesday’s plenary vote will clear the way for the Commission to begin its work on 1 December.
Friday, 29 November – Eurozone flash inflation estimate for November
On Friday, Eurostat will release its Eurozone flash inflation estimate for November.
In September, inflation eased to 1.7%, down from 2.2% in August, falling below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in over three years. This, along with weakening wage growth and economic activity paved the way for the ECB to drop rates by 25 basis points on 17 October, its third rate cut this year, from 3.50% to 3.25%.
However, inflation data for October showed an uptick, rising to 2%, slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast, with food, alcohol, and tobacco prices driving the increase. Core inflation and services inflation, which are key indicators for domestic price stability, remained steady at 2.7% and 3.9%, respectively. This latest uptick is likely to settle the debate over a larger, 50-basis-point cut, signalling that the central bank may continue with a more gradual approach to monetary easing, in line with the calls of its more hawkish GC members, including Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann. Nevertheless, last week ECB’s Governor Villeroy, one of the GC doves, remarked that the victory against inflation was in sight, and downplayed the potential impact of a new round of US tariffs on Eurozone inflation.
Christine Lagarde has repeatedly stated that the Governing Council will not commit to a specific rate cut path, with its more hawkish members stressing the importance of data-driven decisions. Thus, this makes the November inflation report on Friday an important factor in shaping the ECB approach beyond the December meeting, potentially shifting the focus from inflation control to growth stimulation.
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