Week Ahead (31 March)

W/C Monday, 31 March – European Commission to conclude its inaugural DMA probes; Apple and Meta likely to face modest fines 

This week, the European Commission will likely conclude the final rulings of its inaugural investigations into Apple and Meta under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). These inaugural cases, launched in March 2024, focus on whether the designated gatekeepers have violated key DMA obligations on data sharing, platform interoperability, and access to digital services for competitors, with a deadline of 12-months for conclusion. However, the original deadline of 24 March was considered a soft one. Instead, the Commission scheduled a meeting of its Digital Advisory Committee last Friday, a necessary procedural step in issuing a non-compliance decision, pushing the final rulings back for a few more days.  

More specifically, Apple is being investigated for allegedly restricting interoperability within its App Store, while Meta faces scrutiny over its “pay or OK” consent model for targeted advertising. The final decisions are expected to include financial penalties, though reportedly at a modest level. According to a Reuters report earlier this month, Apple and Meta are likely to face relatively limited fines for their suspected DMA violations, despite the law allowing sanctions of up to 10% of global annual turnover (and up to 20% for repeat infringements).  

An FT report on Friday citing EU sources suggested that the likely modest fines are likely driven by cautiousness to avoid escalating tensions with US President Trump. Last month,  President Donald Trump issued a memo threatening retaliatory tariffs on countries that “inhibit the growth” of US tech firms, calling EU regulations a form of “overseas extortion.” In an effort to de-escalate, EU Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera and Tech Chief Henna Virkkunen wrote to US lawmakers earlier in March, specifically House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, reiterating that the DMA “does not target US companies.”   

Indeed, the upcoming rulings will be closely watched as a litmus test for how aggressively Brussels will enforce the DMA in practice. A softer approach may ease transatlantic frictions but risks weakening the law’s credibility. Conversely, robust penalties could reinforce the EU’s commitment to reining in Big Tech, but may further escalate the ongoing trade disputes with Washington. 

Interestingly, the potential decisions this week will likely overlap with Ribera’s visit to Washington DC where she will speak on a panel in the context of the 3-day American Bar Association Antitrust Spring Meeting. Ribera will be joined by DG COMP’s Director General Olivier Guersent and heads of mergers and digital regulation, Guillaume Loriot and Linsey McCallum, respectively. 

W/C Monday 31 March - European Commission to publish mid-term review of Cohesion Policy; likely to outline ways of repurposing funds towards defence 

The European Commission is expected to publish its delayed mid-term review of the EU’s Cohesion Policy this week, having postponed its original release planned for last Wednesday. Cohesion funds represent around one third of the total EU budget. The delay will allow the Commission to finesse proposals to reallocate part of this money towards defence under the recently unveiled ReArm Europe initiative. 

Earlier in March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced her ReArm Europe Plan, stating that the Commission would offer new incentives enabling member states to voluntarily use cohesion policy programmes to fund defence-related investments. This follows February statements by Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto, the Commissioner in charge of cohesion funds, who described the mid-term review as a crucial chance to realign cohesion policy to reflect the EU’s "new priorities," including defence.  However, this move will likely face resistance from major cohesion fund recipients, including Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has already explicitly opposed diverting cohesion funding to defence, stating recently that Italy "does not intend to divert a single euro from the Cohesion Funds for defence." 

Overall, the mid-term review, covering the 2021–2027 budget cycle, will set the framework allowing Member States flexibility in reallocating regional funding but will also be the first step towards discussions on the next long-term EU budget starting in 2028. Economic competitiveness and defence are widely expected to take priority over traditional EU spending areas like agriculture. 

Tuesday, 1 April – Eurozone flash inflation estimate for March 

Tomorrow, Eurostat will release its Eurozone flash inflation estimate for March. After dipping below the ECB’s 2% target in September (1.8%), inflation climbed for four consecutive months, reaching 2.5% in January 2025, suggesting sticky core inflation (2.7% for four consecutive months) and persistent price pressures driven by energy costs and wage growth. However, inflation eased to 2.3% in February, with core inflation at 2.6%, its lowest since January 2022.  

Nevertheless, the eurozone economy remains fragile, with growth for 2024 forecasted at just 0.7%, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties, US tariff concerns, and the political uncertainty in France and Germany, the bloc’s two largest economies. Against this economic backdrop, the European Central Bank decided another rate cut earlier in March, cutting its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2.5%. This week’s inflation data could play a key role in influencing the ECB’s policy trajectory in the coming months, along with external factors such as the US trade policy under Trump. 

Wednesday, 2 April – US President Trump to announce new wave of tariffs, following latest 25% tariff on all car imports  

On Wednesday, the US Administration is expected to announce a new wave of tariffs, a day President Trump has dubbed ‘’liberation day’’. Since taking over in late January, Trump has announced a series of tariffs, including a total 20% tariff on Chinese imports, a 25% US tariff on all imports of aluminium and steel, and a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, whose enforcement has been temporarily suspended. Most recently, on 26 March, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imports of cars and car parts, which will officially come into effect on 3 April. 

Last week’s move prompted immediate backlash from major EU economies.  German Economy Minister Robert Habeck declared that the EU must "respond firmly", insisting that Germany "will not give in" to US pressure. French President Emmanuel Macron similarly criticised the measure, calling the tariffs "a waste of time" that would disrupt supply chains, raise inflation, and potentially "destroy jobs." 

Overall, the new wave of tariffs set to be announced on 2 April will reportedly adopt a "reciprocal" approach, matching import duties and trade barriers faced by US goods abroad. Trump described the reciprocal measures as necessary to rectify decades of perceived imbalances. According to European diplomats briefed on a recent meeting between EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the EU will likely face a flat, double-digit tariff, potentially as high as 20–25%, covering a wide range of European goods. This tariff would be additive, meaning it would stack on top of previously announced sectoral tariffs on products such as cars, steel, and aluminium. The reciprocal tariffs are specifically aimed at countries running significant trade surpluses with the US, notably Germany, Ireland, and Italy, alongside other key trading partners like Vietnam, Japan, and Taiwan. 

The EU has promised a strong counter-response, echoing its 2018 retaliatory measures which included tariffs on politically sensitive US products like motorcycles, bourbon, jeans, and agricultural goods. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire recently warned explicitly that "Europe will not remain passive in the face of economic aggression." Additionally, the EU may deploy its recently adopted Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), designed to respond swiftly to economic coercion by other countries. This mechanism provides the EU with the power to impose countermeasures on US technology and financial sectors, potentially restricting data flows, limiting market access, or levying targeted duties on US digital services, sectors in which the US currently maintains a significant trade surplus with Europe. 

Although Trump's overarching goal remains reshoring manufacturing jobs and addressing the US’s substantial trade deficit, a majority of US economists have warned that higher import prices for American consumers could offset any potential gains. In addition, this week’s announcement will likely trigger a deepening of transatlantic trade conflict with implications on both diplomatic and economic levels. 

Thursday, 3 April – ECB to release minutes of January meeting 

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release the minutes of its 6 March meeting, indicating the level of support for the governing council’s further rate cuts in the coming months.  

In March, the Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for a second time this year, marking its sixth rate cut over the past nine months. The decision was largely taken in response to weak growth and persistent uncertainty related to global trade policy and is widely priced in by markets. The key development, however, was a notable shift in the ECB's communication. Whereas the ECB previously characterised its monetary stance as “restrictive”, it has now adjusted its language, stating monetary policy is becoming “meaningfully less restrictive”. ECB President Christine Lagarde explained that this policy adjustment was the “result of substantive discussion’’, adding there was unanimous support among council members, except for one abstention. Markets interpreted the ECB’s language change as a signal of increasing caution about future rate cuts. 

Therefore, market participants will look through this week’s minutes, along with the inflation data for March and Trump’s likely announcement of tariffs, for further evidence pertaining to the ECB’s monetary loosening in coming months. 

Friday, 4 April – Deadline for EU’s Phase 1 decision on Safran’s $1.8 billion takeover of Collins Aerospace’s flight control business 

On Friday, the EU is due to issue its decision on French aerospace giant Safran’s proposed $1.8 billion acquisition of Collins Aerospace’s actuation and flight controls business, a deal closely watched for its implications on competition in the European aviation market. The deal, announced in July 2023, represents Safran’s most significant acquisition since purchasing aircraft seat manufacturer Zodiac in 2018. Collins Aerospace, owned by US defence and aerospace conglomerate RTX is a major supplier of cockpit functions, notably actuation systems that convert electronic signals into mechanical movements essential for flight control. 

Since February, the Commission has examined the competitive impact of the merger, particularly whether the deal might grant Safran excessive market power or produce conglomerate effects. The EU regulator has been specifically investigating potential overlaps between Safran’s Horizontal Stabilizer Trim Actuation (HSTA) systems and Collins’ thrust reverser actuation systems. To address these concerns, Safran offered concessions earlier in March, notably proposing the sale of its electromechanical actuation business in North America to US-based aircraft parts producer Woodward. This divestiture includes intellectual property, operational assets, staff, and customer contracts related to HSTA systems. The Commission has since consulted rivals and customers to gather market feedback on this proposed remedy. 

The Commission’s deadline for issuing a ruling was initially set for 21 March but was extended to 4 April following Safran’s remedial offer. The EU’s antitrust authority will decide whether to clear the acquisition based on Safran’s concessions, demand further remedies, or launch an extended, four-month in-depth investigation.